Taiwan's government projected on August 28 that the island's total population could fall from 23.19 million today to just 12.15 million by 2075, a loss of roughly 11 million people over 50 years, as plummeting birth rates and rapid population aging converge into what officials are calling a demographic cliff.
The National Development Council (NDC), Taiwan's top economic planning body, released its Population Projections for the Republic of China (2026–2075), warning that shifts in age structure may ultimately prove more consequential than the headline decline in raw numbers.
A Fertility Rate That Keeps Defying the Floor
At the heart of the projections is a fertility rate that refuses to stabilize. Taiwan's total fertility rate (TFR) slipped to 0.695 in 2025 according to Ministry of Interior data, well below the 2.1 replacement level and among the lowest recorded anywhere in the world.
The NDC revised its long-term fertility assumptions downward across all three forecast scenarios. What were previously projected as high, medium, and low TFR targets of 1.3, 1.0, and 0.8 by 2070 have now been adjusted to 1.1, 0.8, and 0.6 by 2075, a meaningful downward shift that reflects sustained underperformance against prior estimates.
Compounding the problem is a structural erosion of the potential mother population. Women aged 20–49 peaked in number in 2005 and have been falling ever since, while marriage rates within that cohort have also declined steadily, further narrowing the demographic base from which any birth recovery would need to emerge. Even if individual fertility intentions improve, the NDC noted, shrinking cohort sizes mean that any rebound would take decades to register in actual birth counts.
Taiwan's Workforce to Shrink by Two-Thirds by 2075
The pace of change accelerates through each decade. In 2026, working-age adults between 15 and 64 represent 67.9% of Taiwan's 23.19 million people, while those 65 and older account for 20.9%.
By 2035, total population is expected to drop to 21.97 million, a loss of roughly 1.22 million in a single decade, and nearly one in three people will be 65 or older (28.7%). The symbolic 20-million threshold breaks in 2045, when total population dips to an estimated 19.98 million and the elderly share reaches 37%.
The steepest structural damage accumulates by 2055, when working-age adults are projected to number just 8.92 million, down more than 40% from 15.76 million in 2026. Those 65 and above will reach 7.68 million, or 43.8% of the total population. By 2075, the inversion is complete: an estimated 6.43 million elderly Taiwanese will outnumber a working-age population of only 5.13 million, with seniors representing 52.9% of all residents.
By 2075, Each Retiree Will Have Fewer Than One Working-Age Supporter
The structural weight of this reversal is most starkly expressed through what the NDC calls the "potential support ratio," the number of working-age adults available to support each person 65 and older. In 2026, that ratio stands at 3.2. It falls to 2.2 by 2035 and 1.6 by 2045, before dropping below 1.0 for the first time in 2065. By 2075, it reaches 0.8, meaning each elderly resident will on average be supported by less than one working-age person.
The overall dependency burden tells the same story in a different register. Today, every 100 working-age Taiwanese support roughly 47.2 dependents, a mix of children and retirees. That number climbs to 55.2 by 2035, 72.8 by 2045, and surpasses 96 by 2055. By 2075, the ratio reaches 136.6.
What drives that burden is overwhelmingly the elderly. The old-age dependency ratio is projected to reach 125.2 by 2075, dwarfing the child dependency ratio of just 11.4. In practical terms, supporting Taiwan's aging population, not raising children, will define the fiscal reality facing future generations of workers.
Eighteen Policy Measures Aim to Slow the Decline
The government has moved to respond. Taiwan's Executive Yuan has established an inter-agency Population Strategy Task Force, and in May 2026 released the first phase of its New Population Strategy, a "Family Support" package containing 18 measures spanning childcare subsidies, family-friendly workplace standards, and housing assistance. Future phases are expected to address the silver economy, lifelong workforce development, and global talent attraction.
The NDC also noted that it has, for the first time, incorporated short-term leading indicators, including prenatal check-up registrations and marriage certificate filings, into its near-term birth projections, an adjustment intended to improve forecast responsiveness to real-time demographic signals.
Even with these efforts, the arithmetic is unforgiving. A sustained fertility recovery cannot undo the immediate structural reality: fewer young women, lower marriage rates, and a large retirement cohort already locked into the population pyramid. The downstream effects on Taiwan's labor market, its healthcare and long-term care systems, and the long-run solvency of its pension funds will compound regardless of whether birth rates eventually edge upward.
Taiwan is far from alone in facing these headwinds; South Korea, Japan, and mainland China each confront their own versions of the same crisis. But for an economy that has built its global standing on a skilled, sizable technology workforce, the prospect of losing nearly half its population within a single lifetime carries consequences that extend well beyond national demographics.
