Taiwan Can Suddenly See Japan — and That's a Typhoon Warning

"People in Taitung say: if you can see Orchid Island, a typhoon is coming!"

 Photos of distant islands flooding Threads confirm an old Taitung saying — and the meteorology behind it.

Residents of eastern Taiwan looked out to sea this week and saw something unusual: islands that are normally hazy smudges on the horizon stood out in sharp relief. For many locals, the stunning visibility was not a reason to celebrate. It was a warning.

"If you can see Orchid Island, a typhoon is coming," goes a saying passed down by elders in Taitung. With Severe Typhoon Bavi bearing down on Taiwan, that folk wisdom is proving accurate once again — and meteorologists say there is solid science behind it.

A Chain of Islands, Visible All at Once

As Bavi approached, users across Taiwan's east coast began posting photos on Threads showing remarkable long-distance views. One Taitung-based user captured Green Island (綠島) and Orchid Island (蘭嶼) in a single frame. On Orchid Island itself, a resident photographed Taiwan's main island with striking clarity.

The views stretched even further. One user photographed Japan's Yonaguni Island from Taiwan, while a post from Yonaguni looking back showed Taiwan's Central Mountain Range rising dramatically from the sea. The Facebook page "Lanyu Weather Station" reported on July 6 that visibility at sea was so exceptional that Yami Island and North Island in the northern Philippines could be seen from Orchid Island with the naked eye.

The phenomenon is well documented. According to meteorological experts and Taiwan's Ministry of Environment, the zone outside a typhoon's rain bands is dominated by subsiding air. As the storm's powerful updrafts pull air upward at its core, compensating downdrafts on the periphery suppress cloud formation, leaving skies unusually clear and visibility exceptionally high.

In other words, the clearer the horizon looks from Taitung, the closer the storm may be — exactly what generations of coastal residents observed long before satellite imagery existed.

Satellite imagery shows Bavi with a mature, well-organized structure and a distinct eye. Taiwan's Central Weather Administration (CWA) says the typhoon carries a central pressure of 915 hectopascals and maximum sustained winds of 53 meters per second near its center, with a level-7 wind radius of 380 kilometers and a level-10 wind radius of 180 kilometers.

CWA forecaster Lin Po-tung said Bavi is expected to move west-northwest to northwest at 15 to 20 kilometers per hour, passing over waters off northern Taiwan at the lower end of severe typhoon strength or the upper end of moderate typhoon strength. If its speed and track hold, the agency planned to issue a sea warning at 2:30 p.m. on July 9, followed by a land warning in the early hours of July 10. Forecasters caution the storm may weaken slightly and its wind field contract as it nears Taiwan, so the scope of the land warning remains under review.

When the Worst Will Hit

The most severe impact is expected from the night of July 10 through July 11, as Bavi passes over the sea northeast of Taiwan. Northern Taiwan and the mountains of Yilan will face heavy to torrential rain first on July 10, before heavy rainfall spreads island-wide from that night into July 11. Mountainous areas in the north, center and east could see rainfall at torrential levels or above.

Winds will escalate in step. Coastal areas can expect gusts of level 8 to 10 during the day on July 10, strengthening to level 10 to 11 that night. Areas north of Taoyuan, along with Yilan, Matsu, Orchid Island and Green Island, could face gusts exceeding level 12 before conditions gradually ease on the evening of July 11.

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Authorities are urging residents to complete typhoon preparations now and to stay away from mountain areas and the coast while the storm passes — however tempting the view.