Richard Koo (辜朝明), chief economist at Nomura Research Institute (野村總合研究所) in Japan, has argued that the current crisis involving Iran and the United States was largely set in motion by President Donald Trump himself. Koo contended that the U.S. military strike on Iran earlier this year not only failed to resolve the nuclear issue but transformed the Strait of Hormuz into a renewed geopolitical flashpoint and exposed a critical vulnerability in global oil exports, triggering a fresh energy crisis.
Speaking at the Wealth Magazine Influence Forum (財訊影響力論壇) in Taipei on July 2, Koo delivered a keynote address titled "The World Economy at a Crossroads and the End of the U.S.-Led Global Order." He warned that unless the U.S.-Iran dispute is resolved quickly, the world will be unable to avoid a compounding energy and geopolitical crisis.
How the 2015 Iran Nuclear Deal Was Reached — and Then Abandoned
Koo pointed to the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) as a benchmark for what successful multilateral diplomacy requires. That agreement, formally concluded in July 2015 under President Barack Obama, was supported by all five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council — including China and Russia — as well as Germany and the European Union. Negotiations took 20 months to complete.
Under the JCPOA, Iran agreed to surrender all medium-enriched uranium, 98 percent of its low-enriched uranium stockpile, and approximately two-thirds of its gas centrifuges. For 15 years, Iran was prohibited from producing uranium enriched beyond 3.67 percent, from constructing heavy-water reactors capable of producing plutonium, or from reprocessing existing reactor fuel. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) was designated to conduct on-site verification of Iranian compliance. In return, the United States, the European Union, and the UN Security Council agreed to progressively lift sanctions against Iran.
Koo noted that the JCPOA required ratification by Iran's parliament, where moderates and hardliners — particularly within the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps — clashed for months before the deal passed 161 votes to 59. At the time, moderate factions held sufficient parliamentary influence to carry the vote.
That diplomatic architecture collapsed after Trump took office in January 2017. In May 2018, his administration withdrew the United States from the JCPOA and reimposed comprehensive economic sanctions on Iran. Koo argued this decision fundamentally altered the political landscape inside Iran, weakening moderate factions and empowering hardliners, while sharply eroding Iranian trust in American commitments.
"From Iran's perspective — you agreed to this deal, Iran shipped its enriched uranium out to Russia, and then America withdrew and brought all the sanctions back. Naturally, many Iranians were furious and came to see the United States as an unreliable partner. That is where everything between the two sides started to change."
Five Advantages the U.S. Had in 2015 That No Longer Exist in 2026
Koo outlined five conditions that made the 2015 agreement possible, none of which he said are present in the current negotiations. First, in 2015 most U.S. allies supported the diplomatic process; today that allied backing is absent. Second, the IAEA participated in the earlier talks; it has no equivalent role now. Third, both China and Russia backed the JCPOA; neither does so in the current round. Fourth, Iranian moderates held enough parliamentary power to outweigh hardliners in 2015, whereas today the hardline faction is dominant. Fifth, the United States was regarded as a credible negotiating partner in 2015; according to Koo, it is not viewed that way now.
Against this backdrop, the U.S. and Iran announced a 60-day ceasefire and peace negotiation period in 2026, with talks focused on a permanent cessation of hostilities, the disposition of Iranian nuclear facilities, and the potential lifting of Western sanctions. Koo expressed serious doubt that such a compressed timeline could produce substantive results, noting that the original JCPOA required 20 months of negotiation even with the full support of the international community and Iranian moderates. He said Trump's goal of reaching an agreement within 60 days would be extremely difficult to achieve unless Washington were prepared to reinstate the original terms agreed under Obama — a prospect Koo described as equally unlikely.
Senior U.S. Officials Warned Trump Against Striking Iran
Koo, who serves as a senior adviser to the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington, said he visited the U.S. capital in April and met with several senior government officials. He said those officials told him, nearly unanimously, that they had advised Trump against launching military action against Iran, warning that doing so would likely prompt Tehran to assert control over the Strait of Hormuz, disrupt Persian Gulf crude exports, and produce a situation that would be difficult to manage. Trump, according to Koo's account of those conversations, did not follow that counsel.
Koo also noted that Israel represented an additional variable absent from the 2015 process. He said Trump's decision in late February 2026 to strike Iran was heavily influenced by the military assessment of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu rather than by the evaluations of U.S. military and intelligence officials.
Koo Compares U.S.-Israel Strike on Iran to Japan's Attack on Pearl Harbor
Koo argued that one of the most damaging factors undermining the current negotiations was the timing of the military strikes themselves. He said that U.S. and Israeli forces began bombing targets inside Iran in late February 2026 while diplomatic talks were still underway — a sequence he compared directly to Japan's attack on Pearl Harbor in December 1941, which occurred while senior Japanese and American officials were still in active negotiations in Washington.
"If you are Iranian, what would you think? They were still in talks, and then the bombs started falling to destroy you. It is exactly the same as Japan attacking Pearl Harbor — the strikes happened while high-level negotiations were ongoing. That attack stirred American patriotism and united the country against Japan. The slogan at the time was 'Remember Pearl Harbor.' The same dynamic is now playing out in Iran."
Koo observed that the range of unresolved issues — the technical details of constraining Iran's nuclear program, and the status of Tehran's relationships with proxy organizations such as Hezbollah and Hamas — makes a meaningful agreement within 60 days highly improbable. He said the negotiations would almost certainly extend beyond that window, and that whether domestic pressure from November midterm elections might lead Trump to make further concessions remained an open question.
