Taiwan could have five stocks trading above NT$10,000 (about US$310) a share by the end of 2027, Fubon Securities Investment Consulting (富邦投顧) Chairman Chen Yi-kuang (陳奕光) said Thursday, citing strong corporate earnings as the main driver.
Speaking at the mid-year session of the 2026 Fubon Financial Trends Forum, Chen also forecast Taiwan's benchmark stock index would climb as high as 54,000 points this year — roughly 30% above current support levels. He declined to name the five stocks likely to cross NT$10,000, but pointed to those already trading near the threshold.
ASPEED Technology Inc. (信驊), a fabless chip designer, is currently Taiwan's most expensive stock, already above NT$10,000. Four others trail behind it: WinWay Technology Co., Ltd. (穎崴), King Slide Works Co., Ltd. (川湖), MPI Corporation (旺矽), and HON. PRECISION, Inc. (鴻勁)— all suppliers of testing, interface, or precision equipment tied to semiconductor production.
The Math Behind The 54,000 Target
Fubon's target assumes a valuation re-rating, not just earnings growth. Taiwan's index has traded at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of roughly 10 to 24 times over the past 15 years, with a long-term average near 16.4 times, according to the firm's presentation materials. Its year-end scenario assumes the market climbs toward the top of that range — near 24 times projected fourth-quarter earnings — implying an index level of about 54,500.
The forecast follows a rough stretch. Fubon's charts show the index losing roughly 700 points between June and early July amid margin-related selling, a decline the firm expects to reverse as summer earnings season and new AI product launches drive gains into the fourth quarter.
Index Seen Holding Support Near 40,000
Chen said the index should hold support near 40,000 points through the second half, with the fourth quarter outperforming the third and the year-end high of 52,000 to 54,000 arriving in the final months of 2026.
A Volatility-Driven Stock-Picking Framework
Chen introduced an eight-theme framework he calls VOLATILE, built for a market he expects to stay structurally volatile despite favorable conditions. It covers undervalued traditional industries (Value); optical components for AI smart glasses (Optical Components); low-earth-orbit satellite makers (LEO); advanced chip packaging (Advanced Package); the Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (台積電, TSMC) supply chain; industrial automation and inference AI hardware; power infrastructure (Electricity); and ETFs tied to semiconductors, robotics, and green energy.
Domestic Capital Is Filling The Gap Left By Foreign Investors
Equity ETF assets reached NT$5.6 trillion (about US$175 billion) by May 2026, up 60% year-on-year, Chen said. Actively managed ETFs have grown to NT$902.3 billion (about US$28 billion) and should top NT$1 trillion (about US$31 billion) after further fundraising rounds close.
Foreign investors have sold a net average of more than NT$500 billion (about US$15.6 billion) annually over the past three years, but domestic trusts and local investors have absorbed the difference, Chen said, shifting the market's ownership structure toward domestic dominance.
Fubon forecasts listed companies' aggregate profits rising 51.1%, to NT$6.83 trillion (about US$213 billion) in 2026 from NT$4.52 trillion (about US$141 billion), led by 60% growth in the electronics sector, 27.2% in financials, and 31.1% in traditional industries.
Elections Have Historically Lifted Taiwanese Stocks
Chen cited historical data showing Taiwanese stocks have risen 86% of the time in both the 20 to 40 trading days before local elections and the 40 days after, with average returns climbing from 5%–8% to 7.6% post-election. A similar pattern holds in the U.S., he said, where the S&P 500 has gained an average 4.9% in the 20 trading days before the last eight midterm elections.
Chen Also Flagged Two Risks To The Forecast
Japanese investors have repatriated an estimated $3.6 trillion from overseas holdings, Chen said — the third such large-scale reversal since 2007 — as global equity and bond returns cooled to 7.3% and negative 0.4%, respectively, down from 19.5% and 8.2% in 2025.
He also pointed to delays in global data-center construction, running 30% to 50% behind schedule because of land and equipment constraints. The Wall Street Journal has reported that roughly 60% of planned capacity will not have broken ground by 2027 — a lag Chen said could push back demand for electronic components and add pressure for inventory corrections.
