Taiwan Public Backs Cross-Strait Talks — and Wants Tsai to Lead Them

A new poll released Monday shows that nearly three-quarters of Taiwan's public supports political negotiations with Beijing when measured across a ten-year dataset, with former President Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) rated as the most trusted figure to lead any such talks — well ahead of both her predecessor and her successor.

The findings were presented at a public forum in Taipei on June 15 by the Taoyuan City National Development and Education Foundation (桃園市國家發展教育基金會), which took over the polling series from National Taiwan University's College of Social Sciences this year. The project has now been conducted nine times since 2015.

Across the full ten-year dataset, 71.7% of respondents said they support cross-strait political negotiations, compared with 18.4% who oppose them. But this year's standalone figure dropped to 61.6% — the lowest in the series — signaling that while a majority still favors engagement, a growing share of the public is growing more cautious.

On timing, 45.8% of aggregate respondents said negotiations should begin as soon as possible, while 34.5% said they would prefer a slower approach.

When asked which political figure they most trust to negotiate with Beijing, respondents placed Tsai first with 25.7% of aggregate support — nearly triple the 9.5% recorded by former President Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) and more than three times the 7% for incumbent President Lai Ching-te (賴清德).

Forum panelist Tsai Chi-ting (蔡季廷), director of National Taiwan University's Center for China Studies, said the public's willingness to negotiate does not mean a deal is within reach. What Taiwan wants from any talks — formal recognition of its distinct political identity — and what Beijing demands as a precondition, namely acceptance of the "one China principle," remain fundamentally incompatible, he said.

Panelist Hung Yao-nan (洪耀南), director of the Cross-Strait Relations Research Center at Tamkang University, attributed Tsai's enduring lead to her sustained approval ratings during her presidency and her landslide re-election. He also argued that Taiwan's public has made a practical distinction: the Kuomintang may be suited to people-to-people exchanges, while the Democratic Progressive Party is seen as the more credible party for formal negotiations.

The poll also captured a notable shift in attitudes toward Beijing's "one China principle." Across the full dataset, 69.7% of respondents said they reject it as a basis for talks, while 21.1% said they accept it, and 9.2% gave no clear answer. Historically, rejection has exceeded 70%, but it fell to a record low of 57.5% in 2018. This year it stands at 58% — the second lowest on record.

Hung cautioned against reading that decline as a sign of softening toward Beijing's position. The more likely explanation, he said, is that rising pressure from both China and the international community has left more people uncertain and watching rather than taking a firm stance. The outcome Taiwan's public most prefers, he added, remains the maintenance of the status quo — an "adversarial coexistence" in which neither side initiates conflict and democratic governance in Taiwan is preserved.

Chou Chi-hsiang (周繼祥), a chair professor at China Trust College of Financial Management (中信金融管理學院), said a meeting earlier this year between Legislative Yuan President Cheng Li-wun (鄭麗文) and Chinese leader Xi Jinping — in which Xi reportedly did not raise the issue of unification — gave him reason to believe some space for dialogue may exist. But he also pointed to a recently floated concept by Zhu Weidong (朱衛東), director of the Institute of Taiwan Studies at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, described as "de facto unification without formal unification." The concept asserts Beijing's control over the pace and terms of any cross-strait outcome. Taiwan cannot afford to ignore such signals, Chou said.

Forum moderator Chang Wu-ueh (張五岳), director of the Center for China Studies at Tamkang University and the foundation's current chairperson, said in his closing remarks that peace across the Taiwan Strait is one of the rare points of consensus shared by Washington, Beijing, and Taipei — even if each defines it differently. He argued that before any formal negotiations can move forward, Taiwan needs to build bipartisan agreement at home. Without consensus between the ruling party and the opposition, he said, no negotiating team can claim the legitimacy and domestic credibility required to speak for the island as a whole. （Related： Viral Claim of 48% Chinese Migrant Surge in Taichung Doesn't Add Up ｜ Latest ）

Original Article in Chinese