Trump Confirms Potential Call with Lai: What It Means for Taiwan-U.S.-China Ties

Taipei officials acknowledge Trump's remarks and thank Washington for its concern over cross-strait stability; the Presidential Office says more details will be released as developments unfold

Taiwan's government responded with cautious optimism on Thursday after U.S. President Donald Trump confirmed for a second time in a week that he intends to speak directly with President Lai Ching-te (賴清德) — a move that would shatter a diplomatic norm Washington has upheld since severing ties with Taipei in 1979.

Executive Yuan Secretary-General Chang Dun-han (張惇涵) said Thursday that the government had taken note of Trump's remarks and expressed gratitude to the U.S. president and the American government for their concern over peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait. Presidential Office Secretary-General Pan Men-an (潘孟安) told reporters that details would be disclosed as the situation develops.

The muted but measured tone from Taipei reflects the careful diplomatic tightrope the island now walks: welcoming sustained U.S. engagement while navigating an increasingly complex triangular relationship with Washington and Beijing.

Trump made his most direct remarks yet at Joint Base Andrews in Maryland on Wednesday, as he prepared to board Air Force One. Asked by reporters whether he would call Lai, Trump replied, "I'll talk to him. I'll talk to everybody… We'll be dealing with Taiwan," according to Reuters.​

It was the second such public statement within days. Following his state visit to Beijing last week — which he described as "amazing" — Trump mentioned the possibility of reaching out to "the person who runs Taiwan," a phrase some observers initially dismissed as an offhand remark. Wednesday's confirmation at Andrews suggests the idea is more deliberate.

​Bloomberg reported that Trump's administration is simultaneously weighing whether to proceed with a US$14 billion weapons sale to Taiwan — a deal that has drawn sustained criticism from Beijing and has been stalled at the State Department for months.

A source familiar with the situation told Reuters that no call has been formally scheduled, and the White House did not immediately respond to questions about timing or agenda. China's embassy in Washington offered no immediate comment.

On the second anniversary of his inauguration Wednesday, Lai told a press conference that if given the opportunity to speak with Trump, he would emphasize Taiwan's commitment to preserving the cross-strait status quo and its efforts to bolster self-defense in the face of mounting pressure from Beijing.

Lai said China is the main destabilizing force in the region, as Beijing continues to expand its military footprint in the East and South China seas. In contrast, he described Taiwan as "a guardian of peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait," and reiterated that Taiwan is a sovereign and independent country whose democratic way of life should not be considered provocative. "No country has the right to annex Taiwan," he said.

Taiwan's Foreign Ministry spokesperson Hsiao Kuang-wei told Newsweek that Lai had reiterated that communication channels with the U.S. remain open and that the government maintains the cross-strait status quo "with neither arrogance nor subservience."

Yet Trump's recent framing of the issue has sent mixed signals to Taipei. His use of the phrase "Taiwan problem" — echoing Beijing's own preferred terminology — and his public statement that he does not want Taiwan to move toward independence have raised questions in Taipei about where U.S. priorities actually lie. In a Fox News interview, Trump said: "Nothing's changed. I will say this: I'm not looking to have somebody go independent… I want them to cool down. I want China to cool down."

The pending weapons package looms large over any prospective conversation between the two presidents. The US has a long-standing policy of strategic ambiguity over whether it would come to the aid of Taiwan if attacked by China. Washington's arms relationship with Taiwan has since 1982 been governed by Ronald Reagan's "six assurances," which explicitly state that the U.S. would not consult China on arms sales to Taiwan and would not revise the Taiwan Relations Act — which requires Washington to provide the island with defensive arms.

Trump has framed arms sales not primarily as a security commitment but as a commercial and negotiating instrument. In a Fox News interview following his meeting with Xi Jinping, he described weapons transfers to Taiwan as "very good negotiating leverage" — a framing that has unsettled defense analysts who argue it subordinates Taiwan's security to transactional U.S.-China deal-making.

Taiwan's Defense Minister Wellington Koo said in March that the next arms sale package is on track after the government received a letter of guarantee from Washington — even as Trump's state visit to Beijing approached. But scrapping the sale could draw bipartisan scrutiny in Washington.

The possibility of a Trump-Lai call inevitably resurrects memories of December 2016, when Trump — then still president-elect — took a congratulatory phone call from President Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文), becoming the first incoming or sitting U.S. leader to speak with a Taiwanese counterpart since Washington shifted diplomatic recognition to Beijing in 1979.

Washington Post foreign policy columnist Josh Rogin, in his book Chaos Under Heaven, described the circumstances surrounding that call as chaotic rather than calculated. Based on extensive reporting, Rogin concluded that Randy Schriver — then chairman of the Project 2049 Institute, a Washington think tank with partial funding from Taiwan's government — had contacted a friend on the State Department transition team, through whom Tsai's phone number was inserted into a list of foreign dignitaries for Trump to call. According to White House insiders, the transition period was so disorganized that no one was in a position to intervene in time.

The fallout was swift and consequential. Despite Trump telling Fox News in December 2016 that he saw "no reason to be bound by a One China policy," he privately moved within weeks to repair relations with Beijing. On the evening of February 9, 2017, Trump assured Xi Jinping personally — through an arrangement brokered largely by son-in-law Jared Kushner — that he would not contact Taiwan's leader again. The subsequent White House statement confirmed Trump's commitment to the One China policy "at the request of President Xi Jinping" — language that, according to Rogin, was inserted by then-Deputy National Security Advisor Matt Pottinger in a bid to preserve at least the appearance of American agency.

Trump's about-face was not without internal resistance. Steve Bannon, who served briefly as White House Chief Strategist, had actively encouraged Trump to take the 2016 Tsai call and regarded the subsequent capitulation to Beijing as a naive concession. Bannon later told Rogin: "Kushner drove all of this — and after that, Trump just didn't want to hear about Taiwan anymore."

The consequence, Rogin documented, was that throughout most of Trump's first term, even officials with genuinely pro-Taiwan views were reluctant to make overt gestures of support — with a telling example being that the F-16 fighter jet sale to Taiwan took more than two years to push through, despite the Pentagon's top Indo-Pacific policy official being a known Taiwan advocate.

The question hanging over this week's announcement is whether Trump's expressed desire to call Lai reflects a genuine strategic recalibration — or another impulsive statement that could be walked back once Beijing registers its displeasure.

Lev Nachman, a professor of political science at National Taiwan University, told NBC News that Taiwan should brace for a more turbulent diplomatic environment ahead. "I think Taiwan needs to be prepared," he said. "There's going to be more language and rhetoric on Taiwan coming from both the U.S. and China in 2026."

What is clear is that any direct conversation between a sitting U.S. president and Taiwan's leader — particularly one that follows rather than precedes a summit with Xi Jinping — would carry a different weight than the accidental 2016 call. Whether Trump's team has thought through that distinction is a question Taipei, Beijing, and Washington are all watching closely. （Related： Lai's Taiwan Independence U-Turn Leaves Cross-Strait Policy at a Dead End ｜ Latest ）