Former U.S. Deputy National Security Advisor Matt Pottinger has argued that Taiwan's defense posture is quietly shifting — and that recent conflicts involving major powers offer critical lessons for the island's security strategy.
Speaking at an international forum in Taipei on May 8, 2026, Pottinger said that based on his recent interactions across Taiwanese society, many on the island are privately recognizing the need to strengthen defense capabilities — not merely for self-protection, but to negotiate with Beijing from a position of strength.
Pottinger, 53, was in Taiwan to participate in the fourth annual international forum hosted by the Center for Asia-Pacific Resilience and Innovation (CAPRI, 亞太堅韌研究基金會), where he served as a panelist in the session titled "Asia-Pacific Resilience amid the Ukraine and Iran Conflicts."
What the Ukraine and Iran Conflicts Reveal About Asymmetric Defense
Pottinger argued that both the Russia-Ukraine war and the U.S.-Iran confrontation carry direct implications for Taiwan's defense planning. In both cases, he noted, a mid-sized state held its ground against a superior military power — a pattern he described as offering "a very valuable lesson for the defense of the Taiwan Strait."
Pottinger served as Deputy National Security Advisor during Donald Trump's first term. He entered the White House in January 2017 after being recruited by then-National Security Advisor Michael Flynn, with whom he had previously worked in Afghanistan. At the time, Pottinger was working at a New York hedge fund. Flynn appointed him Senior Director for Asian Affairs at the National Security Council.
While senior White House officials cycled through the administration at an unusually high rate — Flynn himself resigned after just one month — Pottinger demonstrated considerable political acumen, managing to avoid being swept up in the fallout from Trump's volatile temperament. He served under three successive national security advisors before being appointed Deputy National Security Advisor in September 2019 by Robert O'Brien, Trump's fourth national security advisor. Pottinger was 46 at the time.
Pottinger: Ukraine Will Survive; Iran's Regime Will Face a Reckoning
Responding to questions from the forum moderator, Pottinger expressed measured optimism about the trajectory of democratic resilience globally.
"Ukraine has been through a very long conflict — more than ten years if you count from Russia's annexation of Crimea in 2014," he said. "As the risks have become clearer, everyone is taking defense seriously. In Europe, defense spending has reached levels not seen since the end of the Cold War. Japan is doubling its defense budget, possibly tripling it. In Taiwan, there is now a major debate about how much to increase the defense budget."
"I am actually quite optimistic that Ukraine will survive and win this war. As for the regime in Tehran, if you take a longer view, the people will certainly come to settle the score with that regime," Pottinger said.
On Taiwan specifically, he said: "Based on my interactions with students, journalists, officials, and people across all political parties, Taiwanese are beginning to recognize that they need to take defense more seriously — to build it up — so that when they negotiate with Beijing, they do so from a position of strength. Sometimes Taiwanese don't say this openly, but they know it."
He framed this shift within a broader democratic awakening: "People still value their civil liberties and cherish democracy — not as a vehicle for upheaval like 1989, but for the economic prosperity it produces."
On Xi Jinping: "It Is Reasonable to Infer He Is Deeply Concerned About How Badly Russia Has Performed"
Asked how Xi Jinping (習近平) might be interpreting the outcomes of the Ukraine and Iran conflicts — and what implications those conflicts carry for any potential use of force against Taiwan — Pottinger argued that Beijing is watching with concern.
"It is reasonable to infer that Xi Jinping is very concerned about how badly Russia has performed in this war, and continues to perform. That should give Taiwan some confidence, because in both ongoing conflicts involving a superpower, the mid-sized state — Ukraine and Iran — has held its ground," he said.
He recalled the early days of the Russia-Ukraine war: "When the war began, the situation was dire. The United States closed its embassy in Kyiv and offered to evacuate President Zelensky to safety. He refused. He said he would stay and fight."
"Four years later, Ukraine has — through courage, innovation, and determination — defended the entire Western world, including Europe and the United States," Pottinger argued. He pointed to Ukraine's use of remote-controlled watercraft packed with explosives to sink Russian naval vessels as an example of asymmetric innovation producing outsized strategic results.
He drew a parallel with Iran: "Iran has effectively kept the U.S. Navy at a certain distance from the Persian Gulf, using asymmetric tools — aerial drones, surface and subsurface unmanned vessels, shore-based cruise missiles. None of these are expensive to produce."
Why Pottinger Argues Taiwan Should Learn From Ukraine, Not the U.S.
Pottinger argued that the structural lesson from both conflicts is that modern technology increasingly favors the defender over the attacker — a dynamic with direct relevance to cross-strait security.
"If two superpower navies have been held at bay, that is good news for Taiwan — but only if Taiwan is willing to invest resources and do the work itself," he said.
"Taiwan should invite Ukrainian experts to come and teach how to build drone and missile production capacity. This is not expertise you seek from the United States. This is expertise you seek from Ukraine."
He cited a stark production gap to underscore the point: Ukraine plans to manufacture 12 million drones this year. The United States, combining military and commercial production, can produce approximately 300,000. "The friends Taiwan should bring in to share their experience are those who have proven they can effectively stand up to a superpower," Pottinger said.
He concluded by addressing the political dimension directly. Building deterrence, he emphasized, is not only about having the capability to defend yourself — it also requires signaling to the outside world that you have the will to do so."There are people in Taiwan's political world who keep saying they want to negotiate with Beijing. I have no objection to that. But it is best to negotiate from a position of strength — and that requires Taiwan to build the foundation of a defense industrial base."
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