U.S. President Donald Trump announced on the 21st an indefinite extension of a ceasefire with Iran, moving beyond the original 14-day window and pledging to maintain it until negotiations conclude. The announcement has prompted analysts to question whether substantive diplomatic progress has been made — or whether the move reflects what critics have labeled "TACO" (Trump Always Chickens Out), a pattern of announced pressure followed by de-escalation.
International oil prices remain above $100 per barrel, and competition for control of the Strait of Hormuz between the United States and Iran has not ceased. Global and Taiwan financial markets have partially recovered, but structural economic pressures persist.
The Economist Who Claims to Know Trump Best in Hong Kong
Kevin Tsui (徐家健), co-founder and Director of Economic Research at Hong Kong think tank Pagoda, has told The Storm Media that oil prices are unlikely to fall sharply during the ongoing negotiation period. He argues that sustained high oil prices will increase inflationary pressure and that expectations for U.S. Federal Reserve rate cuts "cannot be optimistic," meaning global financial markets will continue to face negative headwinds.
Tsui holds a Ph.D. in economics from the University of Chicago and previously served as an associate professor of economics at Clemson University. His doctoral supervisor and co-author on several academic papers was Casey B. Mulligan, who served as chief economist of the White House Council of Economic Advisers during Trump's first term.Tsui has said this background gives him unusual insight into the Trump administration's economic thinking, and he has been described as "the economist in Hong Kong who understands Trump best."
Tsui explained to The Storm Media that for the "Greater China" region — including Hong Kong and Taiwan — as well as broader Asia, the core risk remains disruption to energy and related supply chains caused by a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. "A prolonged blockade of the Strait of Hormuz would also damage the U.S. economy," he noted. "Until the strait is reopened, the global economy will remain under sustained pressure."
Is May 1 the Real Deadline?
Tsui points to a key constitutional constraint shaping Trump's timeline. Under Article I, Section 8 of the U.S. Constitution, Congress holds the exclusive power to declare war — a provision designed to prevent unilateral presidential escalation. Article II, however, designates the president as Commander in Chief, creating an inherent institutional tension.
In response to presidents repeatedly deploying military force without formal declarations of war — most notably during Vietnam — Congress enacted the War Powers Resolution of 1973.Tsui explains that the Resolution permits the president to deploy forces in an emergency, but requires notification to Congress within 48 hours. Military operations may not exceed 60 days without Congressional authorization. "This preserves Congress's ultimate oversight and termination authority, while allowing the president flexibility to respond rapidly to emergencies,"Tsui said.
What Is Trump's Current Negotiating Strategy?
Tsui notes that Trump formally notified Congress of large-scale military operations against Iran on March 2 of this year. Under the War Powers Resolution, the statutory 60-day limit expires on May 1. "This means that without Congressional authorization, Trump could apply for a single 30-day extension to safely withdraw forces , but large-scale military operations against Iran would still be required to terminate no later than May 1," Tsui said.
In Tsui's analysis, Trump's decision to extend the ceasefire effectively means choosing to end large-scale operations before the 60-day legal deadline, while simultaneously shifting the battlefield to the Strait of Hormuz and contesting control over it. This reframing may allow the administration to continue applying economic and logistical pressure on Iran outside the constraints of the War Powers clock.
"By doing this, Trump can sidestep the 60-day limit under the War Powers Resolution,"Tsui argued, "giving him more time, at lower cost, to negotiate with Iran — while continuing to cut off Iran's revenue sources."
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