China's People's Liberation Army (PLA) has significantly intensified pressure on Taiwan, with Taiwan's National Security Bureau (NSB) warning that Beijing has organized a so-called "shadow fleet" — mobilizing civilian vessels, including fishing boats and roll-on/roll-off ships, for military training operations. In December 2025 and January 2026, large numbers of Chinese fishing boats were observed forming coordinated "array-style formations" in the East China Sea, a pattern analysts assess reflects an organized mobilization capacity that could be deployed for future maritime harassment operations.
Taiwan's Legislative Yuan Foreign Affairs and National Defense Committee convened on April 8, with NSB Director Tsai Ming-yen (蔡明彥) and senior intelligence officials presenting the annual National Intelligence and NSB Operations Report. The written report has been formally submitted to the legislature.
According to the NSB report, PLA aircraft conducted more than 420 sorties of incursions against Taiwan in the first quarter of 2026. These were coordinated with naval vessels across 10 separate "joint combat-readiness patrol" exercises — periodic operations the bureau assesses are designed to test Beijing's operational readiness for a Taiwan contingency.
China Coast Guard vessels have also maintained routine intrusions into the restricted and prohibited waters around Taiwan's outlying islands. The bureau recorded 44 such patrols into the restricted waters around Kinmen in 2025, with 12 already logged through the end of March this year. During these operations, vessels deliberately disabled their Automatic Identification System (AIS) transponders — a pattern the NSB interprets as systematic probing of Taiwan's surveillance and response capabilities.
The "Shadow Fleet" and Civilian Vessel Mobilization
The NSB assessed that Beijing has been systematically incorporating civilian shipping into its military logistics framework. Requisitioned roll-on/roll-off vessels and cargo ships have participated in amphibious and military transport training exercises along the Fujian and Guangdong coastlines. Civilian semi-submersible vessels have also been used to support landing and logistical supply drills.
Chinese fishing boats have been observed making irregular approaches to waters surrounding both Taiwan's main island and its outlying islands, frequently disabling or spoofing their AIS signals and mixing Maritime Mobile Service Identity (MMSI) codes. The East China Sea "array formations" recorded in December 2025 and January 2026 were assessed to have been directed by fishery management authorities issuing storm-avoidance instructions as a coordination mechanism — indicating, the NSB warned, that Beijing possesses the capacity to mass-mobilize fishing vessels for potential future maritime harassment.
Undersea Infrastructure and Maritime Surveillance
Taiwan's outlying island submarine cables suffered four outage incidents in 2025, with three suspected to involve Chinese vessels. The NSB also noted that Chinese maritime survey and scientific research ships have been conducting frequent hydrographic surveys and seabed mapping in waters surrounding Taiwan — activities the bureau said cannot be ruled out as supporting PLA battlefield reconnaissance and domain preparation in strategically significant maritime zones.
Cognitive Warfare and Cyberattacks
Beyond physical domain operations, the NSB disclosed that Taiwan's intelligence teams identified more than 13,000 anomalous online accounts and over 860,000 pieces of disputed or manipulated content between January and March 2025. The bureau assessed that Beijing is systematically targeting Taiwan's major diplomatic, defense, and economic policy issues — deploying state media, online trolls, content farms, and AI-generated or manipulated material to amplify internal social divisions.
Taiwan's Government Service Network (GSN) recorded approximately 173.28 million intrusion attempts in the first quarter of 2026 alone. The NSB said it cannot rule out that these operations are part of preparatory groundwork for potential interference in Taiwan's late-2026 elections, and that they carry clear intent to expand intelligence collection, surveillance, and data theft.
