Japan's residential real estate market continues its sustained climb, with land prices in the Greater Tokyo Area marking their 23rd consecutive quarter of growth. The latest data for the first quarter of 2026 reveals a significant shift in market dynamics: as the urban core becomes increasingly unaffordable, demand is rapidly moving into the metropolitan fringes and the historic city of Kyoto.
Suburban Shift Accelerates
According to the Residential Land Price Index released by Nomura Real Estate Solutions, both the Greater Tokyo and Kansai regions saw a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1.3%. While the 23 wards of central Tokyo maintained a steady 1.6% rise — extending an upward streak that began in late 2020 — it was the Tokyo suburbs that stole the spotlight with a 1.7% jump. This acceleration on the outskirts suggests that buyers and investors are increasingly prioritizing "commutable affordability," targeting residential zones in Kanagawa, Saitama, and Chiba that remain within reach of the capital.
Kyoto Leads Kansai as Region Diverges
In western Japan, the Kansai region matched Tokyo's overall growth rate, but internal data reveals a stark divergence in performance. Kyoto Prefecture emerged as the quarter's top performer, with land prices surging 4.3% — a sharp leap from the 3.2% recorded in the previous quarter — driven by strong demand concentrated in well-connected residential areas. Osaka City continued its 14-quarter upward trend with a 2.0% increase, reflecting broad-based market strength across the municipality. The Hanshin corridor — covering areas such as Kobe and Takarazuka — extended its positive streak to 15 quarters, though the rate of increase remained modest.
Gains Broaden but Momentum Eases
Despite these sustained streaks, the report points to a subtle cooling of momentum. The number of surveyed locations reporting price increases dropped from 73 to 57, while locations recording no change rose to 111. The headline numbers remain positive, but the market appears to be entering a more selective phase, with price growth increasingly concentrated in high-utility areas.
The Nomura index, which has tracked Japanese land prices since 1989, currently monitors 239 locations across Japan's major metropolitan hubs. While the broad trend remains upward, the shift toward the urban edge marks a turning point for Japan's real estate landscape — one driven by buyers pushing back against the soaring costs of city-center living.
About the Residential Land Price Index
Nomura Real Estate Solutions has published its Residential Land Price Index continuously since July 1989. The survey covers 239 locations across Greater Tokyo, Kansai, and Nagoya — including 169 residential land sites in Greater Tokyo and 42 in Kansai — with data released quarterly. The figures reflect conditions at specific surveyed locations and do not represent overall price movements across entire prefectures or metropolitan areas.
