Exclusive | Taichung Mayor Visits US as Washington Weighs KMT Cross-Strait Policy

Taichung Mayor Lu Shiow-yen (盧秀燕) recently received an unexpectedly high-profile reception at the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) during her visit to New York. Observers note this signals her trip was regarded with serious attention by American scholars and former officials.

The reception suggests Washington is actively preparing for the possibility of a Kuomintang-led coalition victory in Taiwan's 2028 presidential election. However, the KMT remains internally divided over competing orientations regarding its future governing agenda and cross-strait posture.

During her visit, Lu met with a notable roster of former officials, exceeding what outside observers had initially expected. Attendees included senior cross-strait scholars, former American Institute in Taiwan Chairman Raymond Burghardt, and former Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs Daniel R. Russel.

The CFR is generally regarded as leaning slightly toward the Democratic Party, and the officials who attended were largely drawn from the former Biden and Obama administrations. This prompts questions about how the Democratic opposition views a potential KMT return to power in 2028.

A recentNew York Times report described Lu as a leading KMT presidential contender who presented herself as a reliable partner for Washington. Dennis Weng (翁履中), a political science professor who advised Lu, stated her main signal was that the KMT remains a traditionally pro-American party.

The implications of a potential KMT victory dominated a recent high-profile Washington forum co-hosted by the Brookings Institution and the RAND Corporation. The event unexpectedly focused on how the United States should navigate a potential KMT government after 2028.

Panelists Bonnie S. Glaser and David Sacks had both recently met with Lu in person during her Washington visit. Glaser assessed that if the KMT wins, Beijing will likely pressure the new government into accepting political negotiations or reactivating previous cross-strait agreements.

She warned this would place a KMT government in a very awkward position, as Beijing expects such agreements to remain permanent. Glaser noted this would require a broad societal consensus in Taiwan that simply does not exist right now.

Conversely, Jennifer Kavanagh argued that Washington should not interfere in Taiwan's internal political questions. She stated that as long as the Taiwanese people do not accept a coercive change to the status quo, the United States should respect their democratic decisions.

Sacks argued that even if the KMT takes office, they will find it incredibly difficult to achieve progress on technical cross-strait agreements. While the party historically focused on technical and cultural engagement, he assessed that Beijing would aggressively push for immediate political negotiations.

He also noted the KMT is not a monolithic bloc and remains engaged in deep internal debate over its cross-strait and U.S. relations policies. Matthew Turpin added that a KMT electoral victory should be understood as a normal, healthy feature of democratic politics.

Turpin pointed out that Taiwan's economy is far less dependent on mainland China today than many analysts predicted a decade ago. He concluded that while Beijing would welcome a KMT leader, it would not produce the sweeping geopolitical effects the Chinese government envisions.

Andrew J. Nathan, a political science professor at Columbia University who attended the CFR session, confirmed that Washington will pay close attention to Lu's positions. He noted that U.S. policymakers are increasingly focused on Lu's specific agenda.

Nathan assessed that Washington pays closer attention to Lu than to the positions of current KMT leadership. He explained that American officials have already come to recognize that the current party chairwoman's power base within the KMT is fundamentally insecure. （Related： Opinion | The Davidson Window Is Closed — The Danger Isn't ｜ Latest ）