Exclusive| U.S. Defense Scholar Warns Iran War Has Backfired—and China Is the Real Winner

​The US and Israeli military campaign against Iran, launched on February 28, has evolved into a protracted conflict that threatens global economic stability and inadvertently advances China's strategic interests in the Middle East, according to a leading US defense scholar.

Despite targeted airstrikes that successfully "decapitated" high-ranking Iranian officials, including former Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Tehran has maintained fierce resistance. The resulting disruption in the Strait of Hormuz has crippled a vital artery for Middle Eastern energy and logistics, sparking a surge in oil prices and financial risks across Asia.

While proponents of the offensive within the Trump administration and alongside Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu argue the war indirectly checks Beijing's regional influence, Lyle Goldstein, Director of the China Initiative at Brown University's Watson Institute for International and Public Affairs and Director of Asia Engagement at the Washington-based think tank Defense Priorities, warned that the US strategy is severely backfiring. （Related： Opinion | Trump's Iran War Is Running Out of Logic—and Money ｜ Latest ）

Unanticipated Blowback and Domestic Distractions

In an exclusive written exchange with Storm Media on Tuesday, Goldstein assessed the offensive as not only unconstitutional but strategically disastrous.

"In my view, the US military action against Iran is not only entirely unconstitutional, but it is tantamount to 'kicking the hornet's nest'," Goldstein said. He argued that the Trump administration critically failed to anticipate that Tehran would retaliate by blockading the Strait of Hormuz, thereby placing the entire global economy in jeopardy.

Beyond expressing his hopes for peace during this volatile period, Goldstein indicated the conflict appears driven more by domestic political calculations than any imminent external threat. He assessed that President Donald Trump likely seeks to replicate the political optics of his recent "victory" in Venezuela to divert public attention from a grim and frustrating domestic political landscape in the United States.

A seasoned advocate for realism and military restraint, Goldstein spent two decades as a professor at the US Naval War College, where he founded the China Maritime Studies Institute. Drawing on his extensive research into Asia-Pacific defense strategies—and aided by his fluency in Chinese and Russian, and his current study of Korean—he noted that Beijing has historically avoided Middle Eastern military entanglements. （Related： Opinion | Trump's Iran War Is Running Out of Logic—and Money ｜ Latest ）

As early as November 2019, during Trump's first term, Goldstein observed the unlikelihood of Chinese naval patrols in the Strait of Hormuz, writing: "At least for now, the Chinese seem too smart to get bogged down in the Middle East quicksand like the Americans."

The Fallacy of Weakening Beijing's Middle East Influence

Goldstein is already a recognized voice in Asian geopolitical circles. Last October, he gained significant traction in Chinese-language media followinga TIME magazine op-ed in which he characterized Taiwan's President Lai Ching-te (賴清德) as a "reckless leader." Contrasting Lai with the cautious and low-profile approach of his predecessor, Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文), Goldstein suggested that Washington must rein in Lai's high-profile independence rhetoric.

Applying that same critical lens to the Middle East, Goldstein wrote a March 17 op-ed for the Chicago Tribune—just two weeks into the US-Iran war—dismantling the geopolitical rationale of former Trump administration officials. He specifically targeted the assertion by former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo that the conflict would strip China of its strategic foothold to project power in the Middle East. （Related： Opinion | Trump's Iran War Is Running Out of Logic—and Money ｜ Latest ）

Goldstein dismissed this premise entirely, pointing out that Iran has not imported any major weapon systems from China in decades. "Simply put, the military relationship between China and Iran remains negligible," he told Storm Media. Furthermore, Beijing maintains robust diplomatic and economic ties with Iran's primary regional rivals, including Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Israel. Prior to the war, there was virtually no evidence to suggest Beijing was attempting to project military power into the region.

Beijing Poised to Gain Prestige and Soft Power

Contrary to Pompeo's projections, Goldstein warned that the reality on the ground is moving in the exact opposite direction. Rather than being marginalized, China stands to secure significant strategic and military dividends from the US-Iran conflict.

"On the soft power level, China will gain prestige and influence," Goldstein argued. By staying out of the conflict, Beijing is increasingly viewed by much of the international community as a restrained power dedicated to preserving the global status quo—a sharp contrast to a United States that is increasingly perceived as "going rogue."

Goldstein emphasized that Pompeo's claims regarding Beijing's vulnerabilities in the Middle East are "almost certainly false." He concluded with a stark warning regarding Washington's strategic blind spots: "Pompeo and his supporters fundamentally do not understand Sino-Iranian relations, nor do they realize that Beijing could actually benefit from this war."

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（Related： Opinion | Trump's Iran War Is Running Out of Logic—and Money ｜ Latest ）