"Rich in everything but people." When discussing Taiwan's AI survival strategy, 簡立峰 (Chien Lee-feng), former General Manager of Google Taiwan, opened with a stark warning about the island's most pressing structural vulnerability: a collapsing birth rate.
"The reason I say 'rich in everything but people' is because there are simply not enough people," he said.
Chien Lee-feng, now an independent director of AI startup Appier, addressed foreign and domestic media on Wednesday (March 25) under the theme: "As the US and China Dominate AI, Why Should Taiwan Treat AI as Part of National Resilience?"
He outlined the competitive strengths and structural vulnerabilities defining Taiwan's position in the global AI race.
A Booming Stock Market Cannot Hide a Demographic Crisis
Taiwan recorded only 6,523 births in February of this year — falling below 7,000 for the first time and setting a new historic low.
Even as birth rates continue their downward slide, Taiwan's stock market has surged. Anchored by dominant technology firms, and with Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) expanding the supply chain it anchors, the market's valuation has climbed at a pace analysts describe as remarkable.
"Taiwan's stock market is the eighth largest in the world — its market capitalization now exceeds Germany's," Chien noted.
Yet he warned of the concentration risk embedded in this performance. Should leading technology firms — TSMC, Foxconn, MediaTek, and HTC — encounter serious difficulties, "the market could correct by 30%, triggering an immediate national crisis."
He further noted that these four companies collectively account for approximately 99% of Taiwan's total corporate research and development expenditure, making them central to any meaningful discussion of Taiwan's sovereign AI ambitions.
The Talent Gap No One Can Afford to Ignore
Talent is a critical factor in sustaining corporate competitiveness — and Taiwan's persistently declining birth rate means the resulting talent gap can no longer be ignored.
"There is no company in the world quite like TSMC," Chien observed. "It is the sixth-largest company globally, yet it relies almost entirely on Taiwanese workers. Almost no Fortune 500 company operates this way."
For a firm of TSMC's scale, relying solely on domestic labor will be increasingly untenable, he argued.
By contrast, the United States benefits from Wall Street's unmatched capital-raising capacity and a sustained immigration dividend. China commands a domestic market of 1.4 billion people, a vast technical talent base, and will produce more than 13 million university graduates this year alone.
For a small island economy, attempting to compete in isolation would be strategically untenable, Chien said.
Not Enough People? Redefine What 'Taiwanese' Means
"Taiwan's greatest source of national resilience lies in redefining what 'Taiwan' and 'Taiwanese' mean," Chien said.
He urged Taiwan to take the Netherlands as a model — absorbing global talent rather than waiting for it to arrive organically. People do not need to be physically located in Taiwan, he argued; "Taiwanese" should be redefined to mean "wherever Taiwanese businesses operate, wherever Taiwan's core industries are present."
Chien proposed what he called a "one-day living circle" framework: any place reachable within a day's travel should be considered part of an extended Taiwan.
He cited the World Baseball Classic (WBC) as illustration: "120,000 Taiwanese went to Tokyo and made it their home stadium. Many people saw that as evidence Taiwanese love baseball. What I saw was that Taiwanese are prosperous, and that young Taiwanese are deeply comfortable in Japan. That is exactly right — it signals that Taiwan has already grown larger."
He added that if Taiwanese professionals increasingly establish themselves in Ho Chi Minh City or Manila, "Taiwan becomes safer, because Taiwan has expanded." Small economies cannot plug every gap on their own, he argued; international and regional cooperation must replace the instinct toward self-sufficiency.
Four Companies, One National Destiny
Despite its small size, Taiwan is home to the world's sixth-largest company — TSMC — as well as three other firms ranked among the global top 100: 聯發科 (MediaTek), 台達電 (Delta Electronics), and 鴻海 (Foxconn). Together, their combined R&D expenditure accounts for approximately 99% of Taiwan's national total.
In the AI era, each firm occupies a distinct and complementary strategic position.
TSMC sits at the core of the AI economy. Its world-class manufacturing processes and deep R&D capabilities are central to that role — but so is its structural neutrality. Unlike 三星 (Samsung), which competes as both a foundry and a branded device maker, TSMC's pure-play foundry model allows it to serve competitors without conflict, a rare and durable competitive advantage.
MediaTek anchors the edge computing segment. "It is now a partner to 輝達 (NVIDIA) — whereas it was previously a competitor," Chien said.
Delta Electronics occupies the energy efficiency space, a domain that will become increasingly critical as AI infrastructure scales. NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang's "five-layer AI cake" framework places energy at its base — and as global ESG commitments deepen, Delta's efficiency technologies could generate structural international dependency.
Foxconn, meanwhile, commands elite-level hardware manufacturing and supply chain integration. Chien Lee-feng suggested its ambitions are extending from terrestrial infrastructure toward space, noting that AI data centers may eventually migrate off-planet as vulnerabilities in Earth-based infrastructure become more acute.
Taiwan's Strategic Edge: Distance from the Red Supply Chain
Taiwan's clearest strategic differentiator, Chien Lee-feng argued, is its credible separation from China's "red supply chain" — a distinction that has become a cornerstone of international trust.
This differentiation has already extended well beyond semiconductors into AI servers, drones, robotics, and humanoid robots. "This opportunity is almost too large for Taiwan to absorb on its own," he said.
The United States, Germany, and Japan all demonstrate strong demand for Taiwan's supply chain capabilities. Taiwan should therefore globalize that supply chain — simultaneously addressing its talent shortage by distributing capacity internationally.
"The pie grows larger. Taiwan doesn't shrink; it disperses."
From Silicon Shield 1.0 to Silicon Shield 2.0
Chien described a necessary evolution from Silicon Shield 1.0 to Silicon Shield 2.0 as the mechanism for sustaining Taiwan's long-term AI industry resilience.
Silicon Shield 1.0 is built on the island's internal density: more than 580 companies supporting NVIDIA's AI server supply chain are located within a 100-mile radius, enabling a complete cycle of design, manufacturing, packaging, and testing within what he called a "one-hour living circle." That density is extraordinarily difficult to replicate.
But as birth rates fall and Taiwan faces compounding demographic and energy constraints, Silicon Shield 1.0 alone will be insufficient.
Silicon Shield 2.0 reorients the model around global expansion — distributing the supply chain internationally while maintaining Taiwan at its center. The overseas expansion of TSMC and other supply chain leaders, Chien argued, should not be read as a loss of capability, but as the deliberate construction of global co-dependence.
"Both directions matter — international firms coming into Taiwan, and Taiwan going out," he said.
The inbound movement is already underway: Google, Microsoft, and NVIDIA have all established centers in Taiwan. When Taiwan's supply chain is fully deployed globally, the international community's security dependence on Taiwan will deepen correspondingly.
"That," Chien concluded, "is where Taiwan's durable long-term resilience truly lies."
