Taiwan Eyes Nuclear Return, but the Real Crisis Is a Talent Drain

President Lai Ching-te (賴清德) has stated that No.2 and No.3 nuclear power plants are qualified for restart. Analysts say No.3 in the best overall condition and, if safety inspections and regulatory reviews proceed without interruption, could be back online as early as next year. No.2 may also return to service within two years of a confirmed restart plan.

According to Taiwan Power Company (Taipower) data, after No. 3's operating license expired in 2025, its units were shut down — not placed into decommissioning, but maintained in relatively good condition, following the same approach as scheduled overhaul periods. Safety inspections are currently underway in cooperation with the original equipment manufacturer. Once cleared by the Nuclear Safety Commission (核安會), the plant could be eligible for reactivation. （Related： ‘No Contract for 30 Years’: NVIDIA’s Jensen Huang Reveals Trust-Based Ties With TSMC ｜ Latest ）

No. 3 Nuclear Power Plant: Fewer Obstacles to Restart

Yeh Tsung-kuang (葉宗洸), Distinguished Professor at National Tsing Hua University (國立清華大學), said in an interview that No. 3 Nuclear Plant faces relatively fewer barriers to restart. The plant's shutdown period has been short, and both No.1 and No.2Nuclear Plants completed their scheduled annual overhauls — including safety inspections — before formally going offline. The overhaul itself already included safety inspection components, laying a solid foundation for subsequent restart work.

"The current safety inspection essentially picks up where the last one left off, with an additional round of verification specific to restart requirements," Yeh said. Because both units have been in operation for over 40 years, he added, the inspection will focus closely on the steam generators — a critical heat exchange component.

Yeh explained that steam generators contain thousands of heat exchange tubes. In aging nuclear plants worldwide, these tubes are among the most common failure points. Industry practice uses "tube plugging rate" as a diagnostic benchmark: when a tube cracks, it is sealed to prevent leakage of superheated water. A plugging rate exceeding 5–10% typically signals significant degradation in heat exchange efficiency and may require full equipment replacement.

No.3 Nuclear Plant, however, is in better condition than anticipated. Across six steam generators in its two units, the average tube plugging rate is below 2% — well within operational tolerance. （Related： ‘No Contract for 30 Years’: NVIDIA’s Jensen Huang Reveals Trust-Based Ties With TSMC ｜ Latest ）

Yeh said this indicates that the condition of the components is far better than the threshold requiring replacement, with key equipment in high serviceability. As a result, Taipower would not need to spend large sums or extended time procuring and replacing major components, significantly shortening the inspection and preparation timeline.

Beyond Taipower's Expected Schedule: A Phased Review Approach Could Accelerate Restart

Beyond the steam generators, public attention has focused on the reactor pressure vessel, which is subject to prolonged neutron irradiation that can cause material embrittlement. Yeh argued that concern on this point need not be excessive. Citing operational experience with similar reactor models globally, he noted that pressure vessel materials in plants operating beyond 40 years have generally shown no significant embrittlement, and professional structural integrity assessments have in some cases supported continued operation for up to 80 years.

Taipower had previously estimated that Nuclear Power Plant 3 might not complete all necessary work until late 2027, with some voices suggesting delays into 2028. Yeh contested this timeline. Since no key components require replacement, he argued the overall process should be considerably shorter. "I believe Nuclear Power Plant 3 should be able to complete the safety inspection portion as early as early next year," he said. （Related： ‘No Contract for 30 Years’: NVIDIA’s Jensen Huang Reveals Trust-Based Ties With TSMC ｜ Latest ）

Yeh recommended that Taipower adopt a phased review strategy rather than the traditional approach of submitting a complete report only after all inspections are finished. Under his proposed model, each completed inspection phase would be submitted immediately to the National Security Council and the Nuclear Safety Commission, allowing regulators to begin parallel reviews rather than waiting for a single comprehensive filing.

Under this "inspect and review simultaneously" framework, Yeh assessed the feasibility of Nuclear Power Plant 3 restarting and generating electricity within 2027 as "very high." He cited the United States as a reference point, where several plants originally slated for decommissioning have been successfully restarted within 18 months — with policy support and technical assistance from original equipment manufacturer Westinghouse. If Taiwan can effectively leverage manufacturer technical resources and establish working alignment with the Nuclear Safety Commission, Yeh argued, the timeline for Nuclear Power Plant 3 is achievable.

Nuclear Power Plant 2: A Viable but More Complex Case, with Dry Storage and Grid Infrastructure in Place

Nuclear Power Plant 2 presents a more complicated picture, Yeh said. Its shutdown period has been longer, and spent fuel rods remain inside the reactor core — a significant variable in restart planning. Taipower's immediate priority, he noted, is ensuring that the plant's dry storage facility is completed next year. （Related： ‘No Contract for 30 Years’: NVIDIA’s Jensen Huang Reveals Trust-Based Ties With TSMC ｜ Latest ）

"Once the dry storage facility is complete, the spent fuel can be properly removed," Yeh said. He noted that earlier proposals to transfer Nuclear Power Plant 2's spent fuel rods to Nuclear Power Plant 1 were not adopted by Taipower due to transportation risk considerations.

Yeh assessed that despite Nuclear Power Plant 2 having been offline for three to four years, the restart logic is the same as for Nuclear Power Plant 3 — requiring professional safety inspection and equipment evaluation by original equipment manufacturer GE, followed by contract negotiations between Taipower and the manufacturer.

Yeh estimated a restart timeline of approximately two years for Nuclear Power Plant 2. He emphasized that the plant occupies a critical node in the northern and eastern power grid — Taiwan's most electricity-deficient region — giving both the government and Taipower strong institutional incentives to push for its return to service. If a restart proposal is submitted to the Nuclear Safety Commission by the end of this month and approved, and if regulators and plant personnel coordinate closely, Yeh described a two-year return to generation as an optimistic but reasonable target. （Related： ‘No Contract for 30 Years’: NVIDIA’s Jensen Huang Reveals Trust-Based Ties With TSMC ｜ Latest ）

The Real Barrier Is Not Aging Equipment — It Is a Talent Gap

As Taiwan moves toward re-embracing nuclear energy, analysts argue the most pressing challenge is not the age of reactor units but a shortage and discontinuity in qualified nuclear personnel. "The government's diminishing emphasis on nuclear energy over the years — driven by the goal of a nuclear-free homeland — caused significant talent attrition. The nuclear engineering sector needs to be rebuilt," Yeh said.

Yeh noted that the Ministry of Education only recently restored two government-sponsored overseas scholarship slots for nuclear energy-related training — a signal, he said, that the government has begun to recognize the talent shortage. The more immediate challenge, however, is addressing near-term personnel gaps. How effectively Taipower recalls former nuclear professionals and invests in active workforce development will be a key determinant of whether restart timelines are met.

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