Opinion | Can Trump's Military Campaign Spark an Iranian Uprising?

On Feb. 28, U.S. President Donald Trump launched the most consequential military operation of his presidency. Coordinated with Israeli forces, Operation Epic Fury delivered a sweeping aerial assault on Iran.

The campaign devastated Iran's military infrastructure and effectively wiped out much of its political and religious leadership. For Israel's far-right government, the Islamic Republic represents an existential threat it long sought to eliminate.

Finding a strategically impulsive partner in Trump, Israel seized the moment to draw the American military into a decisive confrontation. However, the exact justification for Washington's involvement remains dangerously murky.

Beyond advancing Israeli interests, the destabilization of Gulf oil producers has yielded questionable strategic benefits. Even Trump has struggled to coherently articulate what this massive regional disruption actually brought to the United States.

The Illusion Of Regime Change

The harder problem lies ahead, as severing Iran's ruling apparatus is vastly different from determining its future. Managing a nation of nearly 90 million people with vast fossil fuel reserves is another matter entirely. （Related： Iran War Won't Derail US-China Summit Or Alter Taiwan Policy, Expert Predicts ｜ Latest ）

While Israel clearly wants regime change in Tehran, removing a government is far easier than replacing it. Furthermore, Iran will never accept a Jewish state dictating its sovereign political future.

The United States will inevitably play a central role, regardless of Trump's personal geopolitical preferences. Yet after catastrophic experiences in Afghanistan and Iraq, nation-building remains a thoroughly toxic concept in Washington.

Consequently, both Washington and Jerusalem are actively counting on the Iranian people to rise. They hope citizens will independently overthrow a brutal theocratic regime that has ruled for nearly half a century.

Trump's Social Media Promises

Trump telegraphed this expectation late last year after Iran's deteriorating economy triggered massive civilian protests. The Tehran government responded by killing thousands of its own citizens, further demonstrating the regime's brutality.

In mid-January, Trump posted a message of solidarity, urging Iranian patriots to take over their government. He promised that help was on the way, though he notably failed to specify when or how.

Six weeks later, as air raid sirens sounded over Tehran, Trump apparently believed he had fulfilled his promise. He appealed to ordinary Iranians again, declaring their moment of liberation had finally arrived. （Related： Iran War Won't Derail US-China Summit Or Alter Taiwan Policy, Expert Predicts ｜ Latest ）

He urged civilians to seize control once the American military mission concluded, calling it a generational opportunity. However, Trump's vision is dangerously wishful, and history offers a direct, bloody warning.

The Historical Precedent Of 1991

The United States has a documented record of encouraging uprisings against authoritarian regimes before abruptly abandoning them. The most instructive precedent occurred in neighboring Iraq during the 1991 Gulf War.

In February 1991, President George H.W. Bush urged the Iraqi military and people to take matters into their own hands. He publicly encouraged them to force dictator Saddam Hussein to step aside.

Media amplification and coalition leaflet drops ensured the message reached its intended audience, and many Iraqis took it seriously. Nine days later, the coalition ground war began and swiftly liberated Kuwait.

The ground campaign lasted just 100 hours, resulting in a decisive military victory that halted short of Baghdad. Hussein was militarily crippled but remained entirely intact as a political force.

A Bloody Betrayal

Iraq's Shia Arab majority and Kurdish population had both endured decades of brutal repression under Hussein. Seeing what looked like their moment, they rose up exactly as Bush had encouraged them to do. （Related： Iran War Won't Derail US-China Summit Or Alter Taiwan Policy, Expert Predicts ｜ Latest ）

The revolt spread rapidly from Basra to Najaf, with fighters attacking security forces across the country. Within two weeks, 14 of Iraq's 18 provinces had completely slipped from Baghdad's control.

The uprising was internally divided, and Hussein's battered military retained enough capacity to crush the civilian revolt. What followed was one of the bloodiest episodes in modern Iraqi history, featuring mass killings and chemical weapons.

The decisive factor was American inaction, as Washington won a spectacular military victory but chose to stop there. U.S. officials were entirely unwilling to intervene in Iraq's internal affairs to protect the rebels.

A Warning For Modern Iran

The 1991 Iraqi uprisings lasted little more than a month, leaving approximately 60,000 Shia and 20,000 Kurds dead. Two million people were displaced while Hussein remained firmly in power until 2003.

Iranians watching today have no rational basis for believing their situation will unfold any differently. The historical precedent is incredibly clear, and the pattern of American strategic conduct has not meaningfully changed.

Trump's call to act asks Iranians to stake their lives on the word of a highly unpredictable administration. Washington lacks both the strategic patience and the stated intention to see the bloody consequences through.

The author is a senior journalist and professional translator. （Related： Iran War Won't Derail US-China Summit Or Alter Taiwan Policy, Expert Predicts ｜ Latest ）