Iran War Won't Derail US-China Summit Or Alter Taiwan Policy, Expert Predicts

U.S. President Donald Trump confirmed Monday that Washington is actively negotiating with Iran, a major diplomatic development that Tehran's government has also formally acknowledged. The disclosure follows Trump's recent suggestion that his planned visit to China could be delayed.

The Middle East conflict pushed the highly anticipated Trump-Xi summit back by over a month, raising widespread questions about its ultimate survival. However, a senior American scholar who has studied China for decades believes the critical meeting will still happen.

Iran Conflict Leaves Summit Logic Unchanged

Since American and Israeli forces launched joint airstrikes on Iran in late February, fierce debate has persisted over whether this escalating conflict might reshape U.S.-China relations. Many wondered if the planned presidential summit might be significantly curtailed or canceled altogether.

Andrew Nathan, a senior East Asia specialist and political science professor at Columbia University, stressed that bilateral relations remain critically important to both nations. He told Storm Media that both sides still genuinely want this historic meeting to take place. （Related： The Pain Threshold: Why a US Stock Market Drop Is Required for a Ceasefire ｜ Latest ）

Nathan argued that the ongoing war against Iran has not fundamentally changed either country's underlying motivation to engage diplomatically. Furthermore, he expressed strong confidence that this Middle Eastern conflict will not alter the established policies of either nation regarding Taiwan.

He did agree with numerous analysts who warn that the Iranian conflict is rapidly drawing down crucial American military deployments. This heavy resource drain could weaken the regional presence Washington needs to deter China credibly in the Indo-Pacific.

Despite these tactical military challenges, Nathan offered a qualified reassurance regarding Beijing's ultimate intentions across the Taiwan Strait. He noted that Chinese leader Xi Jinping currently does not intend to use direct military force to achieve the unification of Taiwan.

Instead, Xi firmly believes he can resolve the Taiwan issue without resorting to a costly and destructive regional war. He plans to gradually intensify military and economic pressure while carefully monitoring the slow erosion of American influence across Asia.

Shifting Focus Of Strategic Competition

At 83, Nathan is among the most senior American scholars of China, boasting more than six decades of dedicated research on cross-strait relations. He has personally taught a generation of highly influential figures within Taiwan's political and academic circles. （Related： The Pain Threshold: Why a US Stock Market Drop Is Required for a Ceasefire ｜ Latest ）

His notable former students include Taiwanese Vice President Hsiao Bi-khim (蕭美琴) and National Tsing Hua University professor Wu Jieh-min(吳介民). He also taught Hsu Szu-chien(徐斯儉), who currently serves as Taiwan'sVice Minister for Policy in the Ministry of National Defense.​

Regarding the future U.S.-China-Taiwan triangular relationship, Nathan highlighted a recent observation by Scott Kennedy at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. Kennedy argued that American and Chinese leaders no longer aspire to genuinely reshape their overall bilateral relationship.

While leaders once sought to negotiate major structural issues, they have largely abandoned efforts to resolve the underlying strategic competition that drives tensions. Nathan told Storm Media that Kennedy's astute analysis carries significant weight for understanding current diplomatic trajectories.

In the past, Washington and Beijing actively negotiated substantive questions about how their competing economies could peacefully coexist for mutual benefit. They also engaged in deep, structural dialogue regarding how to safely and effectively manage the sensitive Taiwan issue.

Today, the two sides are increasingly inclined to negotiate over narrower, transactional matters like trade tariffs and technology export controls. Nathan concluded that this modern approach prioritizes easing immediate tensions rather than fundamentally resolving deep-seated, historical disputes between the superpowers. （Related： The Pain Threshold: Why a US Stock Market Drop Is Required for a Ceasefire ｜ Latest ）