Taiwan is unlikely to be used as a bargaining chip in any upcoming summit between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping (習近平). That assessment comes from Chang Wu-ueh(張五岳), a prominent cross-strait relations expert at Tamkang University.
Speaking at a forum hosted by the consulting group Bellweather in Taipei on Monday, Chang noted the two leaders could meet up to four times this year. He delivered a comprehensive lecture detailing China's political and economic outlook for 2026.
Beijing Outlines Four Core Taiwan Issues
Chang dismissed fears that Washington might trade away Taiwan's sovereignty during high-level bilateral negotiations with Beijing. He stressed that China primarily seeks a verbal U.S. commitment against supporting Taiwanese independence.
Instead of demanding major concessions on sovereignty, Beijing is expected to raise four specific issues related to Taiwan. The first involves strong opposition to any expansion or routine normalization of U.S. arms sales to Taipei.
Second, China will push back against Taiwanese leaders using routine U.S. transit stops for substantive diplomatic engagement. Beijing expects Washington to firmly uphold its stated opposition to formal Taiwanese independence.
Third, Beijing strongly opposes any institutionalized upgrades in U.S.-Taiwan bilateral relations. Chinese officials actively seek to block high-level official or legislative exchanges that could effectively elevate the status of their ties.
Finally, China wants to halt the involvement of external powers in the region. Beijing has expanded its definition of "external interference" to include Japan, actively working to prevent trilateral security cooperation.
A Crowded Diplomatic Calendar For 2026
Chang outlined a remarkably crowded diplomatic calendar for the remainder of 2026 across the Asia-Pacific region. The schedule includes a potential, though currently unscheduled, historic summit between Taiwan's President Lai Ching-te (賴清德) and Xi.
The latter half of the year will feature the Chinese Communist Party's pivotal autumn plenum. It also includes the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit, scheduled to be held in Shenzhen this November.
Regarding U.S.-China engagement, Chang noted that a successful initial meeting could launch a full series of summits. This sequence might include a Trump visit to China and a reciprocal Xi visit to Washington.
Following those bilateral visits, the two leaders could meet again on the sidelines of the APEC summit. A fourth meeting could subsequently occur at the G-20 summit in Florida this December.
Cross-Strait Risks Remain Manageable
Assessing cross-strait relations for the year, Chang characterized the geopolitical environment as one where challenges outweigh opportunities. However, he maintained a cautious rather than pessimistic outlook, noting that security risks remain entirely manageable.
Chang emphasized that Xi remains firmly in control of the Chinese military apparatus. He dismissed rumors about top military reshuffles and rejected theories that Beijing might attack Taiwan to distract from domestic pressures.
The Chinese People's Liberation Army is currently navigating a transitional period in its operational command. Meanwhile, the prospect of renewed Trump-Xi dialogue provides Beijing with a crucial diplomatic channel to avoid dangerous miscalculations.
Washington is currently prioritizing its 2026 midterm elections, leading policymakers to favor indirect engagement over open confrontation. Beijing shares this desire to manage differences quietly and prevent any unintended military escalation.
For Taipei, the primary concern remains ensuring that the island's strategic position is not compromised during superpower negotiations. The Taiwan Strait will inevitably be a central topic in any upcoming Trump-Xi dialogue.
Chang concluded that the current geopolitical situation is unlikely to spiral out of control. As long as Washington and Beijing maintain functional high-level communication channels, regional stability can be reasonably preserved. （Related： Pixelated in Taiwan, Exposed in Japan: How Two Democracies Draw the Line on Suspect Identity ｜ Latest ）
