China's newly approved 15th Five-Year Plan features a sharper, more aggressive tone toward Taiwan, replacing long-standing rhetoric with a vow to "resolutely strike" against Taiwanese independence.
The rhetorical escalation from Beijing arrives just as Taipei appears to be securing quiet but significant diplomatic breakthroughs, highlighted by Premier Cho Jung-tai's (卓榮泰) recent—and domestically controversial—trip to Japan.
A Shift in Beijing's Playbook
During the 14th National People's Congress, Beijing approved the strategic outline for the 2026–2030 period. Notably, the plan dedicates an entire standalone section—Chapter 60—to Taiwan policy, titled "Advancing the Peaceful Development of Cross-Strait Relations and Promoting the Great Cause of National Reunification."
Ming Chu-cheng (明居正), professor emeritus of political science at National Taiwan University, analyzed the roughly 500-character chapter during a recent interview with Storm Media. He pointed out that previous five-year plans rarely devoted a dedicated chapter to cross-strait affairs.
More alarming, Ming noted, is the subtle but severe shift in Beijing's language. Where previous plans consistently vowed to "resolutely oppose" Taiwan independence, the new text escalates the phrasing to "resolutely strike" Taiwan independence—a change in posture that Ming cautioned deserves close international attention.
The chapter is divided into two main directives: economic integration and deepening exchanges.
On the economic front, it emphasizes focusing on building a common cross-strait market, developing platforms for Taiwanese businesses in China, and constructing a cross-strait financial market designed to encourage Taiwanese companies to list on mainland exchanges.
On cultural exchanges, the white paper advocates offering Taiwanese residents in China equal treatment with Chinese citizens and promoting a shared identification with Chinese culture.
Ming described the financial market strategy as a highly sophisticated lure, warning that "some will fall for it." He was, however, far more skeptical of the cultural appeal.
"I'm not sure what Chinese culture the Chinese Communist Party actually has to offer," Ming said.
Breaking Diplomatic Ground in Tokyo
As Beijing sharpens its rhetoric, Taiwan is quietly expanding its international footprint. Ming addressed recent domestic criticism surrounding Premier Cho Jung-tai's trip to Japan to attend the World Baseball Classic.
Opposition lawmakers have accused Cho of a dereliction of duty, but Ming pushed back sharply, reminding critics of the historical context of Taiwan's diplomatic isolation.
"Didn't the opposition parties, when they were in power, constantly complain about Taiwan's diplomatic isolation?" Ming asked.
"When did you ever see a Taiwanese premier able to travel abroad for a visit?"
He argued that regardless of whether Cho traveled in a formal or private capacity, the visit represents a major diplomatic breakthrough.
The trip also included four hours of undisclosed meetings in Tokyo.
"Whether he went for wagyu beef or met with senior Japanese officials, we don't yet know," Ming said.
However, the timing is highly suggestive. With Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi scheduled to visit Washington on March 19, Ming argued that a secret meeting between Cho and senior Japanese figures would signal a meaningful tightening of the U.S.-Japan-Taiwan relationship.
Such coordination would constitute not merely a diplomatic win, but a vital boost to Taiwan's national security. Given Taiwan's severe diplomatic constraints, Ming concluded, any genuine international opening deserves encouragement rather than partisan political attacks. （Related： Exclusive | Sweeping PLA Purge Has Created a Potential Crisis in the Taiwan Strait, Japanese Expert Warns ｜ Latest ）
