Nearly two weeks after the United States and Israel launched large-scale military operations against Iran, the Middle East remains engulfed in conflict, raising severe concerns for global energy security and financial markets.
Despite U.S. President Donald Trump's assertion on Wednesday that the war would end soon, the situation on the ground remains highly volatile. Senior officials from Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps have previously warned they will not allow "a single drop of oil" to pass through the Strait of Hormuz.
Now, market anxieties are focusing on a new potential flashpoint: Kharg Island.
Following a recent CNBC report suggesting U.S. forces may move against Iran's most critical oil export terminal, Taiwanese financial commentator Ruan Mu-hua(阮慕驊)warned Thursday that such a development could pose a devastating threat to the global economy.
The Kharg Island Chokepoint
Located off Iran's western coast in the Persian Gulf, Kharg Island handles approximately 90% of Iran's crude oil exports. It is widely regarded as the beating heart of the country's energy infrastructure. A U.S. military strike or physical occupation of the island would effectively sever all Iranian crude exports overnight.
Ruan noted that Brent crude futures have already broken the $100-per-barrel threshold. Even the International Energy Agency's announced release of 400 million barrels from strategic reserves has failed to contain the price surge.
If a battle over Kharg Island materializes, Ruan assessed that international oil prices could skyrocket past $150 per barrel. This would represent a massive shock to global financial markets, potentially triggering runaway inflation and severely damaging the broader economic recovery.
While Ruan acknowledged that ordering such an attack might not appear economically rational for the U.S. administration, he questioned whether rational calculation would ultimately dictate the decision.
For geopolitical and market watchers, Ruan pointed to a key tactical indicator to monitor in the coming days: whether the United States deploys a third aircraft carrier—specifically the USS George H.W. Bush—to join the regional force in the Middle East. （Related： Opinion | Stop Guessing: PLA Aircraft Absence and Fewer Warships Near Taiwan Linked to Weather, Not Politics ｜ Latest ）
Original Article in Chinese
