US Elites Believe Conflict Over Taiwan Unlikely Before 2028, New Study Reveals

As the United States and Israel conduct joint military operations against Iran and the Russia-Ukraine war stretches into its fourth year, the stability of the Taiwan Strait remains a critical global concern. Against this backdrop of international volatility—and ahead of a potential summit between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping later this month—a newly published study offers stark insights into how geopolitical elites view the risk of cross-strait war.

According to a two-year survey of over 100 political and academic elites in Washington, Beijing, and Taipei, a cross-strait conflict before 2028 is highly unlikely. However, if war were to break out, the U.S. would probably not deploy direct combat troops, opting instead for a "Ukraine model" of arms transfers and economic sanctions.

These findings were presented by Weng Lu-chung(翁履中), an associate professor of political science at Sam Houston State University in Texas, during a book launch in Taipei on Sunday. （Related： US ‘Hellscape’ Drone Strategy Faces Taiwanese Legislature ｜ Latest ）

A 'Warning Sign' for Taiwan

Weng highlighted a concerning asymmetry in cross-strait understanding: mainland China's elite circles understand Taiwan far better than Taiwan understands the mainland—a dynamic Weng called "a warning sign."

According to the study, Beijing elites largely acknowledge the pragmatic, livelihood-focused nature of Taiwanese voters. Furthermore, these elites still view "peaceful reunification" as an absolute policy priority. Recognizing the military capability gap between China and the U.S., Beijing officials emphasized that the People's Liberation Army would avoid direct conflict with U.S. forces and would not launch preemptive strikes against American military assets.

In contrast, Weng noted that Taiwanese elites' perceptions of U.S.-China-Taiwan dynamics remain heavily filtered through domestic partisan lenses. 

The Limits of US Intervention

Despite public anxieties and previous warnings suggesting China might attack Taiwan by 2027, Washington elites surveyed in the book believe war is unlikely before 2028. They also affirmed that the U.S. has no intention of destabilizing the Taiwan Strait.

However, the nature of a potential U.S. intervention remains heavily conditional. Most interviewed U.S. elites believe that if a conflict erupted, America would supply weapons to Taiwan and sanction China, but would stop short of deploying American troops—mirroring the current U.S. strategy in Ukraine. （Related： US ‘Hellscape’ Drone Strategy Faces Taiwanese Legislature ｜ Latest ）

Crucially, Weng warned that if Taiwan were to unilaterally cross mainland China's "red lines" and provoke a conflict, the U.S. might choose not to intervene at all. Additionally, recent reciprocal tariffs and trade disputes have left Washington officials concerned that Indo-Pacific allies might not fully support American military action.

Trump and the Need for Dialogue

Looking ahead, Weng stressed that Beijing will not tolerate an endless continuation of the "status quo." While a full-scale invasion is unlikely in the near term, Washington elites believe small-scale military clashes, a "cold peace," or trade conflicts remain distinct possibilities.

Consequently, elites across all three capitals agree that Taiwan and China must establish communication mechanisms—whether through official Track 1 or unofficial Track 2 diplomacy—to prevent catastrophic miscalculations. Weng emphasized that the primary challenge is not a disconnect between the three nations' elites, who actually share relatively consistent perceptions, but the cognitive gap between these elites and the general public.

Finally, Weng pointed to the immediate challenge posed by the current U.S. administration.

"Trump single-handedly blocks all hawkish rhetoric, saying he wants to do business with mainland China and reach deals," Weng said. He advised that Taiwan must transcend its binary political discourse and figure out how to demonstrate its strategic and economic importance to the U.S. president; otherwise, "Trump doesn't value Taiwan at all. （Related： US ‘Hellscape’ Drone Strategy Faces Taiwanese Legislature ｜ Latest ）