On Feb. 28, 2026, the United States and Israel launched Operation Epic Fury, executing precision strikes against Iranian nuclear and military installations. Iran immediately retaliated with Operation True Promise IV, unleashing waves of ballistic missiles and drones at targets within Israel and U.S. military bases across the Middle East.
While international media fixated on the spectacular footage of nighttime explosions and mid-air intercepts, the most critical battle was playing out far from the front lines. The true contest is one of resource consumption and industrial production capacity—a reality that holds profound implications for Taiwan.
The Math of Saturation Attacks
The core strategy of a saturation attack is not necessarily to achieve a single, devastating missile breakthrough. Instead, it is designed to force defenders to exhaust massive quantities of expensive interceptor missiles rapidly. Because military doctrine typically dictates firing two to three interceptors per incoming threat to ensure a successful kill, a tactical defense challenge quickly morphs into a severe industrial capacity problem.
Even successful intercepts result in rapid inventory depletion, placing immense pressure on future combat readiness. War is no longer just a tactical confrontation; it is a brutal race between production lines and supply rhythms.
Throughout its recent "True Promise" operations, Iran has steadily increased the density and frequency of its strikes. Despite Israel fielding next-generation defense systems, high-density ballistic missile barrages place its interception capabilities under extreme stress. This tactical design focuses entirely on sustained attrition.
The Washington Post, citing senior U.S. military officials,recently reported that America's long-term support for Ukraine and Israel, combined with sustained naval deployments in the Red Sea and Middle East, has severely strained advanced munitions stockpiles. Crucial systems—including THAAD and Patriot batteries, as well as ship-based SM-2, SM-3, and SM-6 missiles—have an annual production capacity limited to just hundreds of units. The manufacturing cycle for these high-end interceptors is often measured in years, not months.
When demand surges simultaneously in Eastern Europe, the Middle East, and the Indo-Pacific, production line priorities must inevitably adjust. This is not a matter of shifting political loyalties, but the cold logic of finite industrial capacity.
Diplomatic Sequencing and Delivery Backlogs
Beyond production limits, U.S. arms sales are increasingly subjected to the rhythms of high-stakes diplomacy.
Nikkei Asiareported that U.S. President Donald Trump indicated he would "soon" decide on arms sales to Taiwan, noting that the issue had been raised during phone conversations with Chinese President Xi Jinping. Arms sales are no longer merely administrative procedures; they are highly leveraged chips in bilateral dialogues.
The New York Timesfurther disclosed that approximately $13 billion in Taiwan arms sales, approved by Congress earlier this year, remain stalled in administrative procedures. Reports indicate this delay is a calculated diplomatic sequencing move ahead of the anticipated Trump-Xi summit in March. While this does not necessarily signal a policy reversal, it starkly illustrates that the timing of arms sales is inextricably linked to broader geopolitical maneuvering.
Furthermore, U.S. arms sales to Taiwan face severe delivery backlogs. Equipment such as F-16V fighter jets and multiple air defense systems have been repeatedly delayed due to supply chain bottlenecks. Weapons are not pulled from a warehouse; they are manufactured according to strict capacity allocation schedules. Under the high-load operation of the global defense industry, every new order is placed into a fiercely competitive priority queue.
A Reality Check for Taiwan's Budget Debate
Against this backdrop, the Legislative Yuan's ongoing debates over military procurement budgets and special defense expenditures must operate under a new set of premises.
Money alone cannot bypass a congested assembly line. Even with expanded budgets, the speed at which Taiwan can transform capital into actual combat capability remains constrained by global manufacturing limits. Diplomatic sequencing may stall announcement timing, capacity bottlenecks will delay physical deliveries, and the existing backlog of orders will consume production rhythms for years to come.
In an era of multi-theater consumption, defense budgets are no longer just symbolic declarations of political resolve. They are complex engineering problems of time and production line management.
To build genuine national security resilience, Taiwan must shift its focus toward integrating with existing global production schedules, adjusting the ratio of consumable munitions to heavy platforms, and strengthening asymmetric defense capabilities.
The Bottom Line
The battlefields of the Middle East may seem distant from the Taiwan Strait, but they reveal an undeniable reality: when multi-regional defense demands peak simultaneously, industrial capacity becomes the ultimate strategic resource. As the global defense industry enters a prolonged state of high-load operation, rationality and discipline will serve Taiwan's security far better than emotional rhetoric and political slogans.
*The author holds a PhD in Philosophy from the University of British Columbia, Canada, is a Ministry of Education-certified Associate Professor, and a psychiatrist.
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