Recent military escalations between the United States and Iran have starkly exposed the fragility of Taiwan's energy policy, prompting warnings from policy analysts and opposition figures that ideological preferences risk overshadowing national security and energy stability.
With the critical Strait of Hormuz under threat, Taiwan's heavy reliance on imported energy—particularly liquefied natural gas (LNG) from Qatar—has come under intense scrutiny. Energy risk management principles suggest that when reliance on external sources exceeds 60%, diversification is mandatory. Currently, analysts warn that if shipments through the Strait of Hormuz are disrupted for more than seven to nine days, Taiwan will face an immediate energy resilience crisis.
The stark reality of Taiwan's supply chain means that a blockade of any of three critical maritime chokepoints—the Strait of Hormuz, the Strait of Malacca, or the Taiwan Strait—would effectively sever the island's energy lifeline. Critics argue that successive Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) administrations,from Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁) through Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) to Lai Ching-te (賴清德), have dangerously gambled with the island's import security.
The Vulnerability of the 'Second Energy Transition'
Taiwan's power generation structure remains highly vulnerable to geopolitical shocks, a fact reflected in the government's own projections through 2030. The Ministry of Economic Affairs is actively promoting a "second energy transition" focused on reducing coal, expanding green energy, and phasing out nuclear power.
The administration aims to reach 20% renewable energy by November 2026—driven by 20 gigawatts of solar power and 5.6 gigawatts of offshore wind—and 30% by 2030. To accelerate this, the government is utilizing public lands, developing rooftop solar, expediting geothermal bidding, and establishing cross-ministerial platforms to clear bureaucratic hurdles.
However, to maintain a stable power supply while phasing out coal and nuclear energy, the plan relies heavily on natural gas as a "bridge fuel." According to ministry planning, natural gas will account for a staggering 50% of Taiwan's total power generation from this year through 2030. Security experts highlight that LNG is the imported energy source most vulnerable to conflict-related disruptions.
Contrasts with Japan and Opposition Pushback
Analysts frequently contrast Taiwan's approach with Japan's energy policy, which maintains nuclear power as a baseload source to hedge against external shocks. Anticipating a 20% increase in electricity demand by 2040, Japan targets a mix of 40% to 50% renewables, 20% nuclear, and 30% to 40% thermal power. This framework aims to achieve a 73% carbon reduction while boosting the country's energy self-sufficiency to between 30% and 40%.
Meanwhile, concerns over Taiwan's increasingly unbalanced energy structure have been compounded by recent procurement decisions. Last month, the Lai administration committed to purchasing $44.4 billion worth of LNG and crude oil from the U.S. through 2029.
The opposition Kuomintang (KMT) think tank has strongly criticized the massive procurement, arguing it will devastate Taiwan's 2050 net-zero emissions pathway. They contend that dramatically expanding fossil fuel imports not only contradicts the government's stated transition goals but also exacerbates the island's vulnerability to port blockades.
With China's military exercises in the Taiwan Strait last year demonstrating a clear capability and intent to impose import blockades, defense and energy experts are urging the Lai administration to carefully recalculate its strategy. The core challenge remains how Taiwan can realistically achieve and maintain the international security standard of a 90-day energy reserve amid growing geopolitical volatility.
*Authors: Huang Ping-hsi (黃丙喜), Honorary Chairman of the National Public Interest Development Association; Chang Chi-lu (張其祿), Distinguished Professor of Political Economy at National Sun Yat-sen University. （Related： Iran Blocks Strait of Hormuz Amid U.S.-Israel Military Campaign, Taiwan Faces Energy Crisis ｜ Latest ）
