As Taiwan's legislature prepares to review a crucial special defense budget, political analysts warn the appropriation has evolved beyond a domestic fiscal debate into a critical political signal used by Washington to evaluate the island's commitment to its own security.
On Feb. 24, Kuomintang (KMT) legislative caucus convener Fu Kun-chi (傅崐萁) announced the special defense appropriation would be sent to the committee for review on March 6. While the scheduling appears to be a step forward, U.S. policy circles are expressing growing concern over the possibility that opposition lawmakers could block the measure by arguing that complete U.S. arms sale packages have not yet been formally reported to Congress.
Diplomatic and policy analysts in Washington view the special budget as a vital indicator of Taipei's resolve. Observers warn that if the budget fails to pass review by March 15, U.S. officials will likely interpret the delay as a lack of prioritization for national defense.
Using "unclear arms sale content" or "democratic oversight" as reasons to stall the budget will likely be viewed in Washington as an excuse that downplays U.S.-Taiwan strategic cooperation. Analysts note that arms sales are a lengthy, ongoing process, and the scale of the sales becomes clear once the defense budget aligns with the widely discussed target of 3% of Taiwan's gross domestic product.
Furthermore, the U.S. government is highly unlikely to notify Congress of a new round of arms sales to Taiwan before U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) meet in April. Foreign policy experts note this delay does not represent a weakened U.S. commitment to Taiwan, but rather a standard diplomatic calculation designed to prevent Beijing from canceling the summit or withdrawing key agenda items.
The current political deadlock stems partly from legislative delays last autumn. Analysts warn that continued obstruction could force Taiwan to face cascading geopolitical consequences.
First, the United States could lower Taiwan's priority for future defense procurement. A Feb. 6 executive order issued by the Trump administration emphasized that the U.S. will prioritize arms sales and military transfers to partners who have substantially invested in building their own defense capabilities. Because Taiwan lacks alternative sources for advanced military equipment, a shift in U.S. priorities could significantly weaken the island's defense posture and compress the KMT's negotiating space in cross-strait relations.
Second, skepticism regarding the KMT's geopolitical alignment is reportedly rising within American policy circles. Some Washington insiders are questioning whether the party remains committed to its historical stance representing a "Free China" or if it is shifting toward unification with Beijing. While KMT Chairman Eric Chu (朱立倫) has attempted to foster rational defense policy debates, Washington analysts warn that merely offering verbal support without substantive legislative action reinforces the perception that defense is not a priority for either the KMT or the Taiwan People's Party (TPP).
Finally, a failure to demonstrate firm resolve on defense could prompt the U.S. to reconsider its strategic interdependence with Taiwan. A move toward decoupling would realize the "America skepticism" narrative frequently promoted by opposition figures, potentially devastating the global value chains and technological advancements built on U.S.-Taiwan cooperation.
Trump, along with broader U.S. national security and defense strategies, has explicitly defined Taiwan's autonomy as holding critical strategic and material significance for the United States. Consequently, the outcome of the March budget review will not only impact Taiwan's immediate military readiness but will also fundamentally influence Washington's future policy directions and its assessment of Taiwan's political landscape.
*The author is President of The Jamestown Foundation, former senior advisor on China policy to Marco Rubio, and former CIA counterintelligence analyst. （Related： Taiwanese Gaming Studios Face Target Latin America, New Payment Systems Pose Challenges ｜ Latest ）
