Following the U.S.-backed arrest of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro in January and the rollout of President Donald Trump's "Donroe Doctrine," international observers have voiced concerns that Beijing or Moscow might exploit the distraction to launch military offensives in Taiwan or Ukraine.
However, leading geopolitical analysts argue that China is more likely to use aggressive U.S. maneuvers in the Western Hemisphere to project itself as the "adult in the room" rather than as a pretext for war.
The geopolitical fallout of Trump's assertiveness was the focus of apanel hosted by the Asia Society Policy Institute's Center for China Analysis. The online seminar, moderated by senior fellow Lyle Morris, explored how Beijing and Moscow are responding to Trump's aggressive foreign policy, particularly his efforts to secure American core interests in Latin America under a modernized Monroe Doctrine.
Lyle Goldstein, director of the China Initiative at Brown University's Watson Institute for International and Public Affairs, noted that China is leveraging what it views as bellicose U.S. policies to boost its reputation among Global South nations.
Goldstein, who also serves as director of Asia engagement at the Washington-based think tank Defense Priorities, argued from a realist perspective that a de facto tripartite division of power between the U.S., China and Russia could actually benefit global stability. By establishing formal spheres of influence and buffer zones, the major powers could prevent adventurism and extinguish small-scale conflicts.
Addressing fears that the U.S. intervention in Venezuela might signal tacit permission for a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, Goldstein dismissed the comparison as "too far-fetched." He argued that Beijing's calculations regarding Taiwan are dictated by entirely different conditions than those governing U.S. actions in South America.
While Venezuela represents only peripheral strategic interests for Beijing, Goldstein highlighted the Panama Canal as a more significant flashpoint. Trump has repeatedly vowed to reclaim American influence over the canal. On Monday, the Panamanian government officially took control of ports at both ends of the canal, which were previously operated by a subsidiary of Hong Kong-based Hutchison Whampoa—a move that drew sharp dissatisfaction from Beijing.
On the topic of Greenland, Goldstein dismissed rumors of Russian and Chinese vessels encircling the strategically critical island as untrue and exaggerated. With Russia preoccupied by the four-year-old war in Ukraine, the feasibility of Chinese submarine activities in the Arctic remains highly unlikely, he said.
Looking ahead, the panel identified Northeast Asia as the primary geopolitical hotspot for the next decade. However, Goldstein cautioned against over-extrapolating the threat of a unified Sino-Russian alliance actively fighting the U.S. and its allies. He noted that Beijing has remained cautious regarding the war in Ukraine and wishes to avoid a new Cold War that could sever its economic ties with Europe.
