Expert Warns of Misreading Japanese Policy Towards Taiwan Following Takaichi's Electoral Victory

A historic election landslide for Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi has sparked intense debate among policy experts in Taiwan, with scholars warning that Tokyo's potential shift toward a more aggressive defense posture may not automatically align with Taipei's security interests.

The implications of the Liberal Democratic Party's (LDP) record-breaking victory were the focus of a seminar on Wednesday by the Association of Foreign Relations (AFR) in Taipei, which drew nearly 100 scholars, former diplomats, and students to analyze the shifting geopolitical landscape.

Takaichi's LDP secured 316 seats in Sunday's general election—a two-thirds supermajority that shatters postwar records. While many in Taiwan have welcomed the result as a boon for bilateral relations, experts at the AFR forum urged caution.

A Strategic Workaround

He Sishen (何思慎), a distinguished professor of Japanese language and literature at Fu Jen Catholic University, told the forum that the sheer scale of the victory caught even seasoned observers off guard.

"Everyone was shocked," He said. （Related： Taiwan Overtakes Germany as 4th-Largest U.S. Trade Partner ｜ Latest ）

While the supermajority theoretically brings constitutional revision within reach, He noted that the LDP's weaker standing in the Upper House remains a hurdle. Instead of a drawn-out legislative battle, He predicted Takaichi might bypass parliament entirely to overhaul Japan's defense strategy.

He suggested the Prime Minister could directly revise Japan's "Three Security Documents" to establish new strategic guidelines. This could pave the way for a NATO-style "nuclear sharing" arrangement with the United States, allowing American nuclear assets to be deployed on Japanese soil during crises—though operational control would remain with President Donald Trump.

The 'Archipelagic' Strategy

One of the most provocative possibilities raised at the seminar was the potential for Japan to reassert its status as an "archipelagic state."

He explained that such a move could legally transform the Tsugaru Strait—the strategic waterway separating Hokkaido and Honshu—from international waters into Japan's internal sea. While consistent with international law, closing the strait would effectively sever a key Pacific access route for Chinese and Russian naval forces.

However, He warned that while this containment strategy benefits Japan, it could backfire for Taiwan by intensifying Beijing's pressure on the Taiwan Strait in response. （Related： Taiwan Overtakes Germany as 4th-Largest U.S. Trade Partner ｜ Latest ）

Defining a 'Commercial Conservative'

Addressing characterizations of Takaichi as a "far-right" ideologue, He argued the label is a misunderstanding of her political DNA. He described her instead as a "commercial conservative," noting that while she holds traditional views on historical conflicts—viewing Japan's past wars as acts of "self-preservation" rather than aggression—her primary focus is economic and pragmatic.

"She has a limited understanding of modern Asian ideology," He said.

Looking ahead to Takaichi's scheduled meeting with President Trump on March 19, He used a mahjong analogy to describe the delicate negotiations. He suggested that while Tokyo wants to synchronize with Washington, Japan will need to bring high stakes to the table to reverse trade disadvantages imposed by the "America First" agenda.

Reality Check on Taiwan Defense

The forum also addressed the popular narrative that "Taiwan's crisis is Japan's crisis." He offered a sobering legal reality check, pointing out that Japanese law strictly requires the consent of the host country before the Maritime Self-Defense Force can be deployed.

Because Tokyo adheres to a "One China" policy and does not officially recognize Taiwan as a sovereign state, deploying troops to the island would legally require Beijing's approval—a geopolitical impossibility.

"If Taiwan truly wants friendship with Japan, then don't create trouble for Japan," He cautioned. （Related： Taiwan Overtakes Germany as 4th-Largest U.S. Trade Partner ｜ Latest ）

He advised Taiwan's government to avoid pressing Tokyo on these high-sensitivity security issues and to instead focus on deepening cultural and economic cooperation.