Opinion | AI Race Could Redefine US-China Power Balance

In an era where technological dominance shapes global influence, the intensifying rivalry between the United States and China in artificial intelligence (AI) stands as a pivotal battleground. Experts suggest this contest may echo historical patterns of industrial upheaval, potentially altering the hierarchy of world powers without necessarily triggering a full shift.

Drawing from centuries of precedent, breakthroughs in core technologies have often propelled nations to ascendancy while diminishing others. The steam engine fueled Britain's imperial era from 1780 to 1840, establishing it as an unmatched economic force. Electricity then powered America's rise between 1870 and 1914, eclipsing the UK and cementing U.S. hegemony. In the late 20th century, from 1960 to 2000, computers and information technology sparked Japan's surge, raising alarms of American decline in the 1980s—yet the U.S. ultimately reinforced its lead, widening the gap with its challenger.

Today, AI is heralded as the engine of a fourth industrial revolution, with the U.S. as the established leader and China as the ambitious upstart. This framework underpins a recent book, "Technology and the Rise of Great Powers: How Diffusion is Changing the Balance of Power," by Jeffrey Ding, an assistant professor of political science at the University of Washington. Ding, whose research intersects emerging technologies, international security, and China's innovation landscape, earned recognition from the Chicago Council on Global Affairs as a 2024 book of the year; the title arrived in Taiwan in 2025.

Ding posits that true power transitions hinge not merely on inventing technologies but on their widespread diffusion, which amplifies productivity, economic might, and ultimately military strength. He concludes that China is unlikely to overtake the U.S. in AI, mirroring Japan's failed challenge during the ICT boom—thus preserving American dominance.

Recent developments in China's AI sector offer a mixed picture. The launch of DeepSeek early last year upended perceptions of Beijing's technological lag, sparking a boom that has seen over 1,500 large language models released, more than any other nation. Open-source innovations like DeepSeek underpin popular global apps, including Pinterest, which draws billions of monthly users despite being a U.S.-based company. Increasingly, Fortune 500 firms are incorporating Chinese AI tools, signaling growing cross-border adoption.

Yet doubts persist, notably from within China itself. Zhipu AI founderTang Jie recently highlighted expanding disparities, pinpointing semiconductor shortages as a core obstacle. Similarly, Alibaba's AI lead, Lin Junyang, estimates only a 20% or lower probability of China eclipsing U.S. counterparts in the next three to five years.

This AI showdown extends beyond technical specs, touching everyday life—from personal entertainment and jobs to broader economic reforms and geopolitical strategies. As debates rage in global media with divergent forecasts, the outcome could reshape international relations, much like past revolutions that redefined alliances and conflicts.

For Taiwan, nestled in the Indo-Pacific, these dynamics carry added weight, influencing regional stability amid ongoing U.S.-China tensions. As one analyst notes in a related discussion on great-power games, competitions like this show no signs of easing.

Original Article in Chinese

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