Apple's China Exit Is ‘Nonsense,' Author Warns, as India Falls Short

Successive U.S. administrations have urged global manufacturers to reduce their reliance on mainland China, pushing production back to the United States or toward alternatives such as India and Southeast Asia. Similar arguments have gained traction in Taiwan, where some commentators argue that local firms must pivot away from China as Washington intensifies its strategic pressure on Beijing.

But Patrick McGee, author of the book "Apple in China: The Capture of the World's Greatest Company" and a former Financial Times technology correspondent, says such expectations are detached from industrial reality.

Speaking at a February 9 forum in Taipei, McGee dismissed the idea that Apple could meaningfully sever its supply chain from China within a few years as “complete nonsense.” The discussion was co-hosted by the Center for Technology, Democracy and Society (DSET) and Business Weekly.

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​The ‘Made in India' Illusion

McGee argued that the growing visibility of “Made in India” labels masks how little substantive manufacturing has actually moved. While final assembly is the key criterion under U.S. tariff rules, he said it represents only a narrow slice of the production process.

“Even if consumers see a ‘Made in India' label, that does not mean the phone was truly made there,” McGee said.

He cited an industry insider's joke to illustrate the point: iPhones are effectively produced and assembled in China, then “disassembled,” shipped to India, and “reassembled” to meet regulatory definitions. On that basis, McGee said he remains pessimistic about Apple shifting core manufacturing capabilities out of China over time.

Why China Remains Hard to Replace

According to McGee's research, only about a dozen foreign companies generate more than US$10 billion in annual sales in mainland China. Apple stands apart even within that group, with annual sales that once exceeded US$70 billion—making it not just a manufacturer but a massive industrial ecosystem.

He highlighted three structural advantages that China has built over the decades:

• Speed and scale: China's production tempo, McGee said, is unmatched. India simply cannot replicate the same ramp-up speed.
• Industrial depth: Apple ultimately exercised control over roughly 1,000 factories, the overwhelming majority of them located in China.
• Workforce development: Since 2008, Apple has trained an estimated 30 million workers across China's supply chain and manufacturing system.

“These are not capabilities you recreate by decree,” McGee said.

Why Vietnam—and Fragmentation—Fall Short

McGee also rejected the idea that Apple could simply replicate its China-centric model in Vietnam. Fragmenting production across multiple countries, he argued, runs against basic economic logic and imposes constraints on manufacturing methods.
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“Why spread production across eight countries instead of concentrating it in one?” he asked.

Products assembled in India, meanwhile, continue to struggle to meet Apple's quality standards. While Apple has expanded output there, McGee noted that current production volumes remain roughly half of what China was delivering more than a decade ago.

McGee said he would welcome deeper investment in India, but cautioned that the evidence so far points to incremental diversification—not a fundamental relocation of Apple's industrial base.