Australian Envoy Warns China's Gray Zone Tactics Are Testing US–Japan Deterrence
China's expanding use of so-called “gray zone” tactics—coercive actions short of open warfare—is steadily eroding the foundations of US-Japan deterrence in the Indo-Pacific, Australia’s ambassador to the United States warned, arguing that military strength alone is no longer sufficient to manage Beijing’s rise.
Speaking at the University of Pennsylvania on February 2, Australian Ambassador and former prime minister Kevin Rudd said China’s approach toward Taiwan and its regional neighbors is forcing Washington and its allies to rethink how deterrence and diplomacy should work together in an era of sustained strategic competition.
Xi Jinping Is Actively Redrawing Asia's Strategic Map
Rudd described Chinese leader Xi Jinping as a political figure fundamentally dissatisfied with the status quo, arguing that Beijing is pursuing a long-term effort to reshape Asia’s strategic geography.
“Xi Jinping wants to change the map,” Rudd said, citing Taiwan, the South China Sea, the East China Sea, and the Sino-Indian border as focal points of Chinese pressure. Over time, he added, Xi aims to position China as the dominant power across what Rudd called the“Eastern Hemisphere.”
According to Rudd, Beijing's ambitions are not limited to territorial claims. A close reading of China's recent global governance, development, and security initiatives, he argued, reveals the outlines of an alternative international system—one designed around Chinese priorities and political norms.
Gray Zone Pressure, Not War, Is the Immediate Challenge
Drawing on decades of experience engaging China since the 1980s, Rudd said Beijing’s foreign policy has grown markedly more assertive over the past 15 years, not only toward neighboring states but increasingly toward the broader international community.
Rather than relying on open military conflict, China has leaned heavily on “gray zone” tactics—economic coercion, political pressure, maritime harassment, and other measures calibrated to stay below the threshold of war. In places such as Taiwan and across the Indo-Pacific, Rudd warned, these tactics are designed to incrementally alter facts on the ground while complicating traditional deterrence responses.
China's growing technological capacity has reinforced this confidence, Rudd added. From artificial intelligence to advanced manufacturing, he argued, Beijing now stands as the only competitor capable of matching the United States across the full spectrum of technological development.
Why Military Deterrence Alone Is No Longer Enough
Rudd noted that successive US administrations—from the first Trump presidency through the Biden administration and into the current Trump term—have publicly rejected Beijing’s territorial and strategic claims. Yet the broader reality, he said, is a sustained, multi-dimensional competition between the world's two largest powers.
For Washington, the central question is no longer whether to deter China, but how. Effective strategy, Rudd argued, requires balancing military strength with diplomacy capable of managing competition without triggering escalation.
US policy documents, including the most recent National Security Strategy, reflect this logic, he said. The goal is to maintain overwhelming deterrence while preserving space for economic and diplomatic engagement—allowing economic vitality to sustain military power over the long term.
To do so, Rudd argued, the United States must continue to strengthen its economy, maintain technological leadership, reinforce social cohesion, and preserve the world's most capable military force.
A Test of the Existing Indo-Pacific Order
Rudd's warning underscores a broader challenge facing the United States and its allies: China’s gray zone tactics are probing the limits of an Indo-Pacific order built around conventional deterrence and clear thresholds for conflict.
As pressure intensifies around Taiwan and across the region, he suggested, diplomacy is no longer a secondary instrument to military power, but a structural necessity for managing China’s rise without sliding into open confrontation （Related： Opinion | Under Threat From Washington, Canada Forced Toward Beijing ｜ Latest ）
