The global semiconductor industry is increasingly defined by a hardening divide, as U.S. export controls continue to restrict China's access to advanced manufacturing tools and critical technologies.
In an interview on Storm Media's current-affairs program"Fly to the World",Yang Kuang-lei (楊光磊), a former research and development director at Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSMC), described China's semiconductor push as a deeply asymmetric struggle. He likened the situation to “fighting with one leg broken and one hand tied behind the back,” arguing that even abundant engineering talent cannot compensate for the lack of cutting-edge equipment. “Even the most skilled cook can't make a meal without ingredients,” he said.
The assessment was challenged by Catherine Lu (路怡珍), who pointed to Beijing's stated goal of achieving more than 50% domestic chip production and to the rapid formation of local supply chains led by companies such as Huawei. In response, Yang clarified that his analogy applies specifically to head-to-head technological competition—such as the rivalry between TSMC and China's SMIC—rather than to China's overall industrial capacity.
Yang characterized the current moment as a modern retelling of Water Margin, suggesting that U.S. pressure has effectively “pushed China's semiconductor industry up the mountain,” forcing it to attempt building a self-sufficient ecosystem out of necessity rather than strategic choice.
While acknowledging that China will eventually develop its own internal semiconductor ecosystem, Yang warned that replicating highly specialized technologies will take considerable time. In particular, he pointed to extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography, developed by ASML, noting that EUV lithography is widely regarded as the most difficult bottleneck in advanced chip manufacturing. Other segments of the supply chain, he said, are comparatively easier to localize, but EUV represents a barrier that China is unlikely to overcome quickly.
Yang contrasted this with sectors such as electric vehicles, where China has demonstrated its strength as a “powerful follower,” rapidly scaling and refining technologies first developed elsewhere for its vast domestic market. What remains unproven, he argued, is China's ability to create entirely new, world-leading semiconductor technologies from scratch.
Looking ahead, Yang predicted the emergence of a de facto “G2” structure in the global chip industry—one market centered on China, and another encompassing the rest of the world. The non-China market, he noted, remains significantly larger in terms of production capacity, output, and total value. TSMC's strategy, he said, is firmly aligned with this broader global ecosystem.
Unless the United States relaxes its technology restrictions, Yang concluded, this bifurcation is likely to persist—leaving China to advance within a largely self-contained system while the rest of the global semiconductor industry moves forward along a separate track.
