A shake-up in the top ranks of China's People's Liberation Army (PLA) is making Beijing's Taiwan policy harder to read, a Taiwanese defense scholar has warned. Speaking at a January 30 symposium at National Chengchi University's International Relations Research Center in Taipei, National Defense University professor Ma Zhenkun (馬振坤) said the investigations into Central Military Commission First Vice Chairman Zhang Youxia (張又俠) and Joint Staff Department Chief Liu Zhenli (劉振立) have increased uncertainty around how the PLA makes decisions on Taiwan.
Ma, who teaches at the National Defense University's Institute of Chinese Communist Military Affairs, identified three unusual features in the way Zhang's case has been handled, arguing that they could have broader implications for cross-strait stability. He said Taiwan's security environment has become more dangerous since Zhang's removal, as Beijing's military planning toward the island has entered a less predictable phase. Internal dissatisfaction within the PLA over Xi Jinping's (習近平) handling of the case is likely, Ma added, but he still sees the chance of outright military rebellion as low.
National Chengchi University's International Relations Research Center symposium on January 30 on PLA personnel changes and cross-strait implications, from left: Chieh Chung, Ting Shu-fan, Wang Hsin-hsien, Kou Chien-wen, Ma Zhenkun.
Ma noted the unusually rapid speed of official confirmation regarding Zhang's investigation. After Zhang's absence from a major meeting triggered speculation about his detention, China's Defense Ministry issued a statement within four days confirming that both Zhang and Liu were under investigation for serious violations, following a decision by the Party Central Committee.
This quick response contrasted sharply with previous cases, Ma observed. Former Central Military Commission vice chairman He Weidong (何衛東) and former defense minister Li Shangfu (李尚福) disappeared from public view for months before authorities formally confirmed their removal, typically during major political meetings.
Three unusual aspects of Zhang's downfall
The first unusual element, according to Ma, was the swift official confirmation compared with earlier cases where authorities remained silent for extended periods. The second was the explicit mention that the decision had been made by the Party Central Committee, which Ma said effectively signaled that Xi had personally approved the investigation into Zhang.
The third anomaly involved the broad republication of a PLA Daily editorial criticizing Zhang and Liu across major state media outlets, including People's Daily and Xinhua News Agency, as well as pro-Beijing regional publications such as Wen Wei Po and Ta Kung Pao.
Ma suggested that these three factors point to the Party leadership's desire to quickly contain the impact of the case, out of concern that a prolonged period of uncertainty could create greater complications. The explicit invocation of Xi's authority, he argued, was intended to discourage dissent, while the coordinated media response signaled tighter control over public discussion.
Xi's political timetable and Zhang's purge
Ma argued that corruption charges serve more as justification than as the main motivation for Zhang's removal, and that the underlying drivers are political, as reflected in the tone of the PLA Daily editorial. He noted that while Xi has repeatedly pushed anti-corruption campaigns across the party and the military, in an authoritarian system the consolidation of power ultimately takes precedence.
National Defense University professor Ma Zhenkun analyzes that Taiwan's security has entered a more dangerous phase following Zhang Youxia's downfall.
Ma said the timing may be related to Xi's next major political juncture at the Chinese Communist Party's 21st Party Congress in 2027. He speculated that Zhang's removal could be connected to Xi's apparent intention to further extend his authority beyond the next leadership transition, even though Xi would have been aware of the potential backlash such a move might generate.
Ma assessed that internal dissatisfaction within the PLA over Zhang's treatment is almost certain, but he judged the likelihood of open military rebellion to be minimal. At the same time, he argued that Zhang's absence has created a leadership gap in the PLA's operations system, with no current general enjoying a comparable level of authority and respect among the ranks.
Taiwan's security enters a riskier phase
On cross-strait implications, Ma warned that Zhang's removal has increased uncertainty around Beijing's military posture toward Taiwan. Previously, he said, analysts could form a reasonable assessment of Beijing's likely military approach by understanding Zhang's views and role, and could develop corresponding countermeasures.
Now, Ma argued, the key risk lies in the lack of clarity over who holds final decision-making authority on Taiwan-related military matters, making Beijing's next moves harder to predict. This heightened uncertainty, he said, poses a significant challenge for regional stability and for Taiwan's defense planning.
