As global politics becomes increasingly shaped by ad hoc deal-making among major powers, Taiwan is facing growing strategic uncertainty, a risk highlighted this week at the 2026 Commonwealth Economic Forum (CWEF).
Speaking via video link at the forum, Tom Standage, Deputy Editor of The Economist and editor of The World Ahead 2026, warned that U.S. foreign policy under President Donald Trump may be moving away from stable alliances toward a more fragmented, transactional world order.
A Three-Way Split of the Globe?
Standage noted that foreign policy analysts remain divided over whether the world is entering a new Cold War dominated by the United States and China. However, recent discussions in Washington about hemispheric spheres of influence suggest the global system may instead be drifting toward a looser division of power among the United States, China, and Russia.
Under such a logic, each major power could act largely unchecked within its perceived sphere of influence. China, he suggested, could seek to annex Taiwan, while Russia might threaten Europe without meaningful U.S. interference. “The reality is messy, especially under Trump,” Standage said, adding that the former president favors intuitive, transactional decisions over coherent geopolitical frameworks.
Taiwan as a Bargaining Chip
For Taiwan, the most troubling implication is the possibility that it is viewed in Washington less as a long-term partner and more as leverage in negotiations with Beijing.
Standage observed that Trump appears largely indifferent to issues such as human rights or the traditional defense of democratic values. Instead, Taiwan risks being treated as a bargaining chip in pursuit of concrete concessions from China, including access to rare earth elements or increased agricultural purchases such as soybeans.
He warned that if Trump were able to obtain what he wanted from Beijing, Washington's position on Taiwan could shift as part of a broader transactional arrangement.
Strategic Volatility and Political Constraints
The uncertainty surrounding U.S. policy is compounded by what many in Washington describe as the absence of a consistent strategic doctrine. Rather than a hidden master plan, Trump's decision-making is widely seen as driven by shifting priorities and personal instinct.
Recent U.S. actions, including confrontational moves near Venezuela and continued interest in Greenland, illustrate a willingness to disregard international norms and strain relationships with traditional allies. Standage cautioned that similar thinking could extend to Asia, increasing risks for Taiwan.
Looking ahead to the U.S. midterm elections in November, Standage described the vote as a political barometer that may indicate how far Trump is willing to push American institutions. While election outcomes could constrain his room for maneuver, they are unlikely to restore predictability to U.S. foreign policy.
For Taiwan, the remarks underscored a growing concern that strategic ambiguity may no longer offer reliable protection in a world increasingly shaped by short-term bargains rather than long-term commitments.
