AIT’s Greene: Allied Cooperation Bolsters Deterrence Against Seizure of Taiwan

Recent defense budget discussions and the contested NTD$1.25 trillion special defense budget have drawn sustained attention, with the special budget remaining stalled amid cross-party disputes. Against this backdrop, the Institute for National Defense and Security Research hosted American Institute in Taiwan (AIT) Director Raymond Greene (谷立言) for a keynote address on January  22. Greene emphasized that Taiwan serves as a critical hub in the first island chain, noting that Taiwan's recent adoption of an attrition warfare strategy has successfully transformed limited forces into a defense capability with multiplier effects, significantly increasing the difficulty for China to seize Taiwan.

The United States has deployed its most advanced defensive capabilities along the first island chain, while allies are making crucial investments in their own military strength. Through these collective efforts, regional peace and stability continue to be maintained. （Related： The Hidden Cost of Taiwan’s US Investment Deal ｜ Latest ）

The Institute for National Defense and Security Research held a symposium today on "Strengthening Defense Investment and National Development," featuring Greene's keynote speech titled "Investing Together in a Secure and Prosperous Future." Greene noted that just as the utopian vision of the League of Nations failed to contain deep economic divisions and historical grievances, today's false belief in pursuing "globalism" at any cost has left the world unprepared for current existential threats. For too long, we turned a blind eye to certain nations manipulating global rules to enhance their own power while sacrificing the interests of workers and families in other countries, including the United States and its partners. We mistakenly believed that economic interdependence could ensure peace, ultimately leading to insufficient defense investment among many US allies.

America's Strategic Correction and New Expectations for Allies

Greene explained that under President Donald Trump's leadership, the United States is undertaking urgent and necessary strategic corrections to ensure the preservation of its freedom while avoiding a repeat of the tragedies of two world wars in the previous century. This correction begins with America's decisive break from the delusion of unlimited globalization and profound lessons learned from past military actions that left many Americans skeptical of endless wars. The replacement is not isolationism, but rather a clear-eyed and pragmatic strategy combining active diplomacy with strong deterrence to ensure lasting peace. The United States will stand firmly with allies and partners, protecting both its own freedom and promoting their security. （Related： The Hidden Cost of Taiwan’s US Investment Deal ｜ Latest ）

Greene stated that freedom does not come without cost, and America's ability to help friends depends on how much effort they are willing to invest in their own security. Nowhere in the world does the importance of "sharing the fruits of freedom while jointly bearing the responsibility of protecting it" more evident than in this region. As Trump's National Security Strategy clearly states, the United States is committed to maintaining military capability to deny aggression at any point along the first island chain.

First Island Chain Defense Layout and Taiwan Strait Security Core

However, Greene noted, the strategy simultaneously emphasizes that the United States cannot and should not bear this burden alone, calling for partner nations to increase defense investment and, more importantly, invest in capabilities that can truly deter regional aggression. With support from allies including Japan, South Korea, Australia, and the Philippines, the United States is deploying the most advanced defensive capabilities along the first island chain, while allies simultaneously make crucial investments in their own military strength. Through such collective efforts, regional peace and stability are maintained, coercive behavior is addressed, and as the National Security Strategy states, "the capability to deny any attempt to seize Taiwan" is jointly ensured. （Related： The Hidden Cost of Taiwan’s US Investment Deal ｜ Latest ）

Greene pointed out that the National Security Strategy clearly states that Taiwan is a critical hub of the first island chain, connecting the East China Sea and South China Sea while providing direct access to the Pacific Ocean. Combined with Taiwan's important position in the global economy, the risk of conflict in the Taiwan Strait becomes a core issue concerning the security of the United States, the world, and certainly Taiwan itself. He noted that Taiwan has demonstrated an increasingly clear commitment to fulfilling its key role in maintaining regional peace, and since returning to Taipei a year and a half ago, he has been deeply impressed by the breadth and speed of Taiwan's defense reforms.

Asymmetric Strategy and Comprehensive Defense Reform

Greene highlighted that Taiwan's military has promoted comprehensive defense and attrition warfare strategies that leverage the island's natural geographical conditions and use asymmetric capabilities to transform limited forces into defense capabilities with multiplier effects. Crossing the Taiwan Strait and landing on a mountainous, densely populated island is already one of the most difficult military operations; Taiwan's recent deployment of explosive obstacles at the mouth of the Tamsui River makes such scenarios extremely challenging. （Related： The Hidden Cost of Taiwan’s US Investment Deal ｜ Latest ）

This is not merely a matter of operational planning, Greene continued, but concerns force structure and practical training. Taiwan has successfully extended mandatory military service from four months to twelve months and reformed its reserve system, dramatically expanding immediately deployable manpower. A well-trained, well-equipped reserve force is itself an important deterrent to potential aggressors. Another key transformation is Taiwan's deepening embrace of Mission Command principles, which represents an asymmetric advantage that democratic societies possess over authoritarian systems—trusting junior commanders to execute missions autonomously according to the commander's intent not only maintains resilience when critical command and control nodes are attacked but also enhances overall operational flexibility.

Societal Resilience and Demonstration of National Fighting Spirit

Greene noted that Taiwan's military also demonstrated its ability to leverage urban environments during last summer's Han Kuang exercises, deploying forces in residential communities and Taipei's MRT system. Meanwhile, urban resilience drills across the island have incorporated civilian institutions and local governments, showing that preparedness efforts are gradually becoming a society-wide endeavor. Public support for these exercises reflects society's strong recognition of the military's role in maintaining peace, with increasing numbers of citizens actively participating in resilience drills, demonstrating determination to protect their homes and livelihoods. （Related： The Hidden Cost of Taiwan’s US Investment Deal ｜ Latest ）

When Americans and foreign visitors frequently ask him "Does Taiwan have the will to fight?" Greene typically tells them that polls show Taiwanese willingness to defend their homeland exceeds that of Ukrainians surveyed before February 2022. More importantly, he emphasizes that "the will to fight and the will to prepare are inseparable."