For the U.S., the war in Ukraine has evolved from a "must-win" battle for democracy into a costly long-term strategic investment. By the end of 2025, Washington's aid to Kyiv will have reached astronomical amounts, amidsta noticeable decline in enthusiasm for foreign aid and domestic doubts over "unlimited support." This "strategic fatigue" profoundly affects White House decision-making.
The U.S. objective has subtly shifted from helping Ukraine secure victory to ensuring Russia cannot win, while carefully avoiding direct conflict with Moscow. This implies a more selective aid approach, aimed at maintaining Ukraine's defense capabilities, rather than supporting a large-scale counteroffensive. Washington's strategy is now to manage the conflict and leverage Ukraine to bleed Russia, buying time and resources for its strategic competition with China in the Indo-Pacific. For Ukraine, this is both a lifeline and an invisible constraint.
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Russia's end strategy
The Kremlin's core strategy revolves around endurance.Moscow is betting that it is more willing to sacrifice to win in Ukraine than Western democracies and that hardship will eventually erode Western resolve to assist. It does not seek to occupy all of Ukraine but to solidify control over areas it currently occupies and prevent Ukraine from joining any Western military alliances.
Following initial military setbacks, Russia's economy has demonstrated unexpected resilience in sustaining long-term wartime expenditure and shifted to a wartime economy, supported by vast energy reserves and trade relations with China and India. A frozen conflict with terms favorable to Russia is Putin's best-case scenario to play to the domestic audience.
However, the cost of victory is formidable. Hundreds of thousands of casualties have left a deep wound on Russian society, and large social discontent simmers beneath a thin veneer of government suppression.
Beijing's long game
China plays the most pivotal role in this game. Beijing officially champions mediation and dialogue, opposing unilateral sanctions and attributing the conflict's roots to NATO expansion. It has provided Russia an economic lifeline through ongoing trade relations,effectively becoming Moscow's strongest strategic support.
Moreover, the war accelerates the global de-dollarization process, advancing the internationalization of the Chinese yuan and the creation of a non-Western economic system.
China is also a potentially important economic partner to Ukraine for future reconstruction, increasing its influence on Kyiv.
Consequently, Beijing favors a prolonged conflict, not uncontrolled escalation.
Ukraine's future
Ukraine's future hangs by a thread. It must carve its path amidst limited U.S. support, Russia's persistent encroachment, and China's strategic maneuvers. This path is fraught with compromise and pain, but it remains the only route to survival.
Kyiv's leadership must exhibit exceptional political acumen, continuing to seek Western military and economic support while perhaps beginning to explore more pragmatic engagements with the Global South, and even China, to find diversified backing for post-war reconstruction and national development.
＊The author is a professor in the Department of Business Administration at National Kaohsiung Normal University.
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